Global geopolitical tensions continue to escalate, with the turmoil in Venezuela triggering a reshaping of the international markets. US military intervention and the arrest of Maduro not only trigger short-term safe-haven capital flows but also prompt the market to reassess the stability of the international order. Coupled with the protracted Russia-Ukraine conflict and tense Middle East situation, gold's status as the ultimate safe-haven asset is once again highlighted. The most noteworthy development is the uncertain outlook for Venezuela's frozen 31-ton gold reserves, which may accelerate central bank gold reserve allocations in non-Western countries, providing long-term support for gold prices from an official demand perspective.

From a technical standpoint, gold is trading above its moving average system on the daily chart, with the MACD maintaining a bullish crossover signal, forming a complete bullish structure. The main short-term risk is technical correction caused by profit-taking, which warrants attention. The 4-hour chart shows repeated oscillation around $4465, with support focused on the $4420-$4389 range. Trading volume has mildly expanded, with no obvious divergence. The 1-hour chart is within the $4436-$4445 consolidation zone, recently showing a sideways pattern. A break below the daily pivot at $4412 could trigger a phase adjustment.

Trading strategies identify two bullish entry points: one is a rebound and stabilization with a bullish close around $4360-$4380, and the other is a breakout above $4421.9 followed by a retest confirmation. For bears, wait for a rebound to encounter resistance at $4480-$4500 or a direct breakdown of support at $4412 to attempt a small short position. The key is to distinguish the trend type—healthy upward movement involves a one-sided rally, while unhealthy trends show repeated rises, corrections, and oscillations. When the market enters consolidation, quick in-and-out actions are preferable rather than stubbornly holding at the bottom. $4500 is an important resistance level, with a retracement target around $4408. Currently, gold has stabilized above $4420, and today’s focus is on the guidance from major non-farm payroll data. The trading approach should revolve around $4450 for range-bound trading, with key levels at $4405-$4420 and $4418. The target is set at $4550, with resistance above at $4465-$4472 and $4495.

Risks to watch include: the rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index may trigger passive selling; CME margin hikes could intensify short-term volatility. The economic calendar highlights the US December ISM Manufacturing PMI, this Friday’s non-farm employment report, and the UN Security Council meeting on Venezuela as key events to monitor. The US dollar index’s rebound remains the primary short-term factor suppressing gold prices, with particular attention to the fight around the 98.5 level. If the dollar breaks above 100, gold could face significant correction. Currently, gold is at a historical high, with increased volatility, making disciplined trading especially important: strictly avoid operations without stop-loss, use flexible profit-taking in the short term, and adjust positions based on fundamental developments in the medium term.