This case of the prediction market truly刷新了 our understanding of "anything can be bet on."

Here's what happened—predictive platform Kalshi launched a wager: Will the White House Press Secretary's press conference on January 7th last more than 65 minutes? As the probability soared to 98%, traders flooded in. And then? The speaker suddenly hurriedly ended the press conference in the last few seconds, directly disrupting the entire rhythm.

A sudden reversal. Those who bet "No" made 50x returns within seconds. Some say it was just a coincidence, but in prediction markets, such "coincidences" are becoming more and more frequent.

This reveals a core risk of prediction markets: information asymmetry and potential market manipulation. When large sums of money gather in one direction, those who hold the actual information can profit from it. Meanwhile, retail traders who get "cut" can only watch the probability numbers flicker on the screen, unable to see the true intent.

Prediction markets should be tools to discover true probabilities, but now they resemble a battlefield of information. Insider information, timing strategies, even sudden human interventions—these are rewriting the rules of the game.