#MSCI未排除数字资产财库企业纳入范围 Tonight's Non-Farm Payrolls are coming! Market alert for spike ⚠

Attention everyone, the US December Non-Farm Employment data will be released tonight at 9:30 PM. This data is considered the market's guiding indicator. The market expects an increase of 60,000-70,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate stable at 4.5%. However, any deviation from expectations could trigger a market surge.

The market reactions to three scenarios are clear:

Data meets or slightly exceeds expectations → A soft landing in the labor market is basically confirmed, the expectation of rate cuts in 2026 drops significantly, the US dollar strengthens sharply, and stocks and gold come under pressure. Conversely, if the increase exceeds 100,000, inflation concerns will instantly ignite, the dollar will surge violently, and risk assets will be hit across the board.

But if the increase is below 50,000, it’s a different story — rate cut expectations will be fully priced in, stocks and gold will rise accordingly, and the dollar may face a correction.

Don’t just look at the data for the current month; the revisions for October and November are the hidden killers. Even if December performs well, significant downward revisions in October and November data can still ignite market expectations for rate cuts. More importantly, the unemployment rate trend is crucial. If it jumps to 4.7%, a rate cut in January by the Fed is almost certain, and gold and stocks will dance accordingly; but if it stays at 4.5%, the pressure for rate hikes will be temporarily relieved.

The options market is already tense, with volatility expectations reaching the highest level of the year. Whether the data is better or worse than expected, tonight will definitely be a big event. Traders participating in the market must manage their positions carefully and beware of spike-induced liquidations. $BTC $ETH