2025 is coming to an end. Looking back at this year's investment landscape, many believe that the US stock AI rally was the biggest winner. However, what truly determines whether you made money or not is not here——it's in two words: devaluation.

Let's start with the harsh reality: measured in US dollars, the S&P 500 indeed rose by 18%, which looks good. But if you measure in euros, Swiss francs, or even gold—these strong assets—the US stock market had negative returns for the year and fell sharply.

The logic behind this is actually not complicated. In 2025, almost all fiat currencies experienced collective devaluation——the dollar fell 12% against the euro, 13% against the Swiss franc, and 4% against the RMB. The only hard currency, gold, saw its dollar-denominated return soar to 65%, which is a full 47 percentage points higher than the 18% of the S&P 500.

Many people haven't realized that currency devaluation directly inflates your nominal returns. You see the US stock market up 18% and feel good, but how much of that return is real, and how much is just the "magic" of a devalued dollar? From the perspective of a strong currency, the S&P 500's 18% return against the dollar appears as a -28% loss when priced in gold. This is why global capital is increasingly flowing into gold and non-US assets.

More importantly, the future debt rollover pressure is looming——$10 trillion in US debt needs refinancing, and the Federal Reserve is likely to choose easing to lower interest rates. But the market's current expectations for easing may not materialize. If easing falls short of expectations, bond assets will become less attractive, and assets like gold, which do not rely on credit, will be the true safe haven.

Want to get the rhythm right for 2026? Instead of chasing the AI story in US stocks, it’s better to think more about how currency devaluation affects your real purchasing power——this is the hidden factor that determines long-term wealth.