The market surged then clearly pulled back. Bitcoin is currently hovering around 89,000 USD, and Ethereum has retreated to the 3000 level. Both are now in a consolidation phase.

The January rate cut is basically unlikely, as the data from the Fed watch tool shows—the probability of a rate cut is only 11.6%. However, looking ahead, the situation in 2026 becomes more complex. What does the collective wisdom from market prediction platforms like Polymarket tell us? The highest likelihood is for 2 rate cuts (a total of 50 basis points), about 28%; followed by 3 cuts (a total of 75 basis points), about 22%; the probability of 4 or more cuts is even lower, around 17% or less.

But there’s an interesting voice—Federal Reserve Board member Milan directly said they plan to cut rates by 150 basis points, and even boasted that they could create 1 million jobs without triggering inflation. This magnitude is twice what the market expected. If there are indeed 3 cuts, each starting at 50 basis points, honestly, I don’t really believe this probability unless the economy suddenly slumps significantly or unemployment rises sharply.

The key moment is here. The December unemployment data and non-farm payrolls will be announced tonight. The market expects non-farm employment to increase by 60,000, with the previous value at 64,000; the unemployment rate is expected to be 4.5%, with the previous at 4.6%.

Whatever the outcome, it will influence the market. If the data is weak and signals a slowing economy, and the Fed releases dovish comments, it will be positive for cryptocurrencies and other risk assets. Conversely, if the data is strong and the Fed maintains a hawkish stance, the market may face pressure.

The current situation is a bit complicated. The unemployment rate is rising, and employment numbers are shrinking, indicating economic vitality is declining. The market is all hoping the Fed will open the rate cut door soon.

And today’s big event—Trump is set to officially announce the new Fed Chair. Trump previously hinted that the new chair must be obedient and cooperative. This personnel change clearly hints at the future policy direction.