#2026年比特币价格展望 Can Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? This question is now broken down into several probabilities on a well-known prediction platform: there's a 26% chance it will hit $100,000, and what about $95,000? 59% of gamblers are betting on that. Conversely, the probability of dropping to $85,000 is 43%, and a further decline to $80,000 has a 19% chance.

In simple terms, this is a giant, decentralized probability betting game. Those betting on "rising to $95,000" and those betting on "falling to $85,000" are essentially playing an ancient game—my profit comes from your misjudgment. Zero-sum game, that's all.

But some projects are trying a different approach. They don't play the price prediction game but are building a more interesting system:

**First, the returns are 100% certain, not relying on probabilities.** Traditional prediction markets are tangled between 26%, 59%, and 43%, but some blockchain-based protocols are designed very straightforwardly—each transaction automatically donates a certain proportion of value to educational and public welfare causes. This isn't about betting whether the price will rise, but about creating social value with certainty.

**Second, this is a positive-sum game, not a zero-sum gamble.** In prediction markets, someone profits while someone else loses. But in a well-designed ecosystem, traders gain from holding assets, beneficiaries receive educational resources, and society as a whole benefits from the goodwill generated by financial flows—no one has to lose.

**Finally, consensus is no longer divided but focused.** When different factions argue endlessly over price expectations, participants in this kind of ecosystem are tightly united by a common goal: using technology to improve educational equity. This action-based consensus is much stronger and warmer than data-based consensus.

This doesn't mean prediction markets are useless, but that there's another approach worth exploring.