## Bitcoin's Classic Market Rhythm Has Been Rewritten: From Cyclical Patterns to Structural Transformation

Once, Bitcoin followed an almost ironclad four-year cycle—each halving event triggered explosive growth over 12 to 18 months. The halving cycles in 2013, 2017, and 2021 confirmed this pattern: the market was forced higher by supply shocks. But 2025 broke this spell.

Currently, Bitcoin's trading price hovers around $90.47K, retracing from its all-time high of $126.08K. More importantly, the entire market's behavioral logic has undergone a "cycle of corruption" type shift—the original cyclical mechanism has been completely reshaped.

## Decaying Returns: Institutionalization Diminishes Volatility

A key chart clearly shows a phenomenon: each upward trend is smaller than the previous cycle. This is no coincidence but a reflection of deep structural changes in the market.

Since the approval of spot ETFs in the US, Bitcoin has evolved from a high-risk speculative asset into a "macro asset class." The influx of institutional capital has changed the game—this large-scale "main force" entry has eliminated the extreme volatility once seen. Bitcoin is no longer viewed as a gamble for the next tenfold increase but has been incorporated into traditional portfolio risk management frameworks.

Historical data confirms: in March 2024, Bitcoin hit a new all-time high, just one month before the actual halving event. In contrast, past halvings typically waited a year or more before reaching a top. The spot ETF drained the market’s anticipatory liquidity—the expected "institutional capital wave" that was supposed to arrive in 2025 had already been triggered in 2024.

## Continuous Collapse of Statistical Regularities

Bitcoin once followed another ironclad rule: 1 year of bear market paired with 3 years of bull markets. But this pattern was broken in 2025. This is the first time since the 2014 bear market that Bitcoin failed to complete three consecutive years of green candles.

More notably: in 2025, Bitcoin's annual gain/loss was -4.77%, the first time on record that the year-end close did not exceed a 10% gain. This data vividly reflects a reality—Bitcoin's volatility has significantly diminished.

From the perspective of the halving mechanism, supply shocks should have been the direct driver of price. But once the market is dominated by ETF liquidity and institutional holdings, a single supply factor can no longer dictate the price rhythm. Bitcoin's performance of -4.77% over a year is a numerical footnote to this structural shift.

All of this points to a conclusion: Bitcoin has evolved from a cyclical asset to a correlated asset, and its operating pattern driven by supply shocks is now a thing of the past.