Dogecoin at a critical market juncture: Three analysts point to a possible bottom formation

As of the start of 2026, Dogecoin is at a critical technical threshold. With the current price of $0.14, the cryptocurrency is trading just above several long-term support levels. Three established chart analysts are currently examining intensively whether the market is indeed forming a sustainable bottom or if further correction phases are imminent.

Yearly Perspective: The Structural Basis for Hope

Analyst Cantonese Cats first takes the overarching yearly view. 2025 ended for Dogecoin with a stable structure: the price defended the 0.786 Log-Fibonacci retracement level at approximately $0.10879, forming an inside candle. This chart pattern is not primarily a momentum signal but rather a structural statement.

The significance lies in respecting this logarithmically scaled retracement line. It shows that sellers could not push further down. Cantonese Cats comments: “DOGE held the 0.786 Log-Fib support and formed an inside candle, which favors bullish continuation."

Critical for the yearly outlook is the next Fibonacci retracement target: the 1.0 line at around $0.73905. While not seen as an immediate price target, it emphasizes the structural upside potential if the 0.786 level holds on higher timeframes.

Monthly Chart: The Critical Support Level

The analysis becomes more concrete when looking at the monthly chart. Matt Hughes, known as “The Great Mattsby,” focuses on a precise technical level: the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at $0.11778. This is not just any support level – it is the level where Hughes currently sees a higher low formation.

Hughes clarifies his thesis: “This looks like the higher low needed to initiate a bottoming process, especially since the price is holding the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at $0.11778." His key entry zone is between $0.11 and $0.12, which he considers attractive from a risk-reward perspective.

This view differs from pure recovery optimism: the market is not “bullish” because it is rising, but constructive because it is trying to form higher lows instead of lower ones. If the $0.11778 level gives way, the next Fibonacci retracement supports drop significantly – for example, to the 0.236 level at $0.08433. On the upside, the 0.5 retracement at $0.15428 and the 0.618 level at $0.20210 mark the next proof points for the bottom theory.

Weekly Chart: The Immediate Confirmation Signal

Kevin (Kev_Capital_TA) sharpens the focus on the weekly timeframe. His observation: “Dogecoin is currently forming a meaningful weekly reversal candle within an established demand zone."

But Kevin’s conditions are tight. The weekly candle must be confirmed by Sunday close, while simultaneously BTC and DOGE need to reclaim the 4H-200 SMA/EMA. His scenario: “If this succeeds, the bottom of this correction phase could be set, and a rebound upward could begin. Watch 88K–91K for BTC.”

The Interplay of the Analyses

The three perspectives form a coherent narrative:

On the yearly level, the structural setup is open and bullishly constructed. The monthly chart shows a critical support level at $0.11778, which will validate or invalidate the bottom theory. The weekly level offers an immediate confirmation signal through a specific candle formation.

The current price of $0.14 sits above the crucial monthly Fibonacci retracement line. This is a positive sign – but no guarantee. For a true bottom formation, the market needs the weekly close as confirmation. If Dogecoin drops below $0.11778, the narrative quickly reverses. Conversely, if the price holds and subsequently reclaims local resistance levels, the charts collectively point to a transition from correction to base-building – a key signal for DOGE traders in the coming weeks.