MSTR Faces Uncertain 2026 As MSCI Index Decision Looms Large

With MSCI’s pivotal ruling on January 15 just around the corner, Michael Saylor’s Strategy and other bitcoin-backed treasury companies face a critical crossroads. The index provider will determine whether these entities qualify as investment funds—a decision that could reshape MSTR’s market positioning and trigger substantial capital outflows.

The MSCI Delisting Risk: Numbers You Need To Know

JPMorgan has issued a sobering warning: a potential MSCI exclusion could drain approximately $2.8 billion from Strategy through equity index outflows. This scenario isn’t merely theoretical—crypto traders are pricing in a 77% probability of such a delisting by March 31, according to Polymarket data.

The consultation period for excluding digital asset treasury companies from MSCI indices recently concluded, setting the stage for what many view as an existential test for MSTR’s institutional appeal. If Strategy loses its index inclusion, the ripple effects could be far-reaching for shareholders holding through major funds and ETFs that track MSCI benchmarks.

Peter Schiff Raises Fresh Questions About MSTR’s Fundamentals

Economist and Bitcoin skeptic Peter Schiff has intensified his scrutiny of Strategy’s corporate decisions, particularly flagging concerns about the company’s preferred stock STRC and its dividend sustainability. The 11% monthly dividend payment on STRC has drawn scrutiny, with Schiff characterizing the move as financially precarious—especially given the company’s earlier difficulties maintaining even a 10% dividend rate.

This dividend escalation, Schiff argues, signals financial desperation rather than strength. He’s gone further, describing STRC as “junk” and questioning whether Strategy’s aggressive dividend structure can withstand further market volatility.

Bitcoin Price Pressure Could Amplify Headwinds

The broader catalyst for Schiff’s bearish stance centers on Bitcoin’s trajectory. MSTR already endured a brutal 2025, closing the year down 50% from its earlier $400+ peak. The sell-off intensified in the second half when Bitcoin tumbled below $100,000 in November, dragging MSTR shares along with it.

For 2026, Schiff predicts steeper Bitcoin declines ahead, which he believes will compound pressure on MSTR valuations. He’s also highlighted a damning comparison: if Strategy were included in the S&P 500, it would rank among the six worst-performing stocks—a metric that underscores the divergence between Strategy’s Bitcoin-heavy strategy and traditional equity market performance.

The Verdict: Multiple Risks Converging

Schiff’s core argument boils down to this: Strategy’s decision to accumulate Bitcoin as its primary treasury asset has ultimately destroyed shareholder value rather than creating it. Combined with the looming MSCI ruling and the possibility of index-driven outflows, 2026 could prove even more challenging than the difficult year Strategy just completed.

The next two weeks will be critical. MSCI’s January 15 decision will either validate or undermine the bull case for Peter Schiff’s doubted thesis—and potentially reset expectations for MSTR shareholders watching from the sidelines.