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Market sentiment has been boosted by policy expectations, but the current technical chart tells a different story. Although the 4-hour K-line still maintains an upward trend, a short-term divergence has emerged—MACD's dual lines have crossed below the zero axis, clearly indicating a decline in short-term momentum.
The issue is not only with the indicators. Trading volume is shrinking, which suggests insufficient buying enthusiasm. The recent rally is more of an inertial surge driven by news rather than genuine market consensus.
Resistance levels are right in front of us: 91,600 is the first hurdle, and 92,200 is a substantial high-pressure zone. Looking downward, 89,200 provides initial support, but if it breaks, 88,300 is the real lifeline.
What should we do now? Those with heavy positions should be cautious. Reaching the 91,600-92,000 range is not a signal to add positions; rather, it’s time to consider locking in profits. The initiative should be in your hands.
For those with light or no positions, don’t chase the highs. Patience is the best strategy. The ideal entry point is around 89,200. If the market dips deeply to 88,300, that would be the most cost-effective opportunity to enter with favorable risk-reward.
Next, focus on two key points: whether MACD can climb back above the zero axis, and whether trading volume truly expands during the rally. These two signals will determine if the market can turn the tide.