At 9:00 PM Beijing time on January 9th, the U.S. Supreme Court is about to release a ruling involving the dollar's foundation. The content of this decision could trigger a massive shockwave sweeping through risk assets like Bitcoin.

Essentially, the core issue of this lawsuit is whether the large-scale tariffs imposed by the Trump administration under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act are lawful. In the fiscal year 2025, these tariffs have already generated approximately $195 billion in revenue for the U.S. Treasury. If the court rules them illegal, subsequent tariff revenues could dry up, and the government would have to refund between $115 billion and $145 billion in collected tariffs. This would be a "gray rhino" for U.S. finances.

According to data from the Kalshi prediction platform, the market currently assigns only a 28% probability that tariffs will be fully upheld. What does this mean? The market generally expects a compromise or partial overturning, which is precisely the scenario most likely to trigger intense market volatility.

The key is how this ruling will impact Bitcoin. The transmission path is quite clear: Ruling outcome → Concerns over fiscal gap → Dollar and U.S. debt pricing → Global capital flows → Cryptocurrency market reaction. In other words, if tariffs are significantly overturned, the market will immediately start pricing in a huge fiscal black hole. The dollar's creditworthiness will be damaged, and historical experience shows that Bitcoin's long-term rises and falls often synchronize with dollar weakness. At the same time, this ruling will reprice market expectations of policy, most likely causing short-term intense volatility.

The current Bitcoin market has quietly changed. Its correlation with the S&P 500 has significantly increased, embedding it deeply into the global risk asset system. On the other hand, the hidden risks to dollar credit also reinforce Bitcoin's narrative as "digital gold." The spot ETF is a double-edged sword—an average holding cost of $89,000 has become a key support and resistance level, and large capital flows could amplify market volatility.

From three perspectives, possible scenarios are deduced:

**Scenario 1: Full Overturn of Tariffs**
The dollar comes under pressure, which is positive for Bitcoin. Expectations of easing will boost risk asset valuations, and Bitcoin as a non-U.S. asset is expected to benefit.

**Scenario 2: Compromise (Most Likely)**
Market uncertainty is at its peak, with intense short-term battles between bulls and bears. Risk assets may fall first and then rise, or repeatedly test the $89,000 level. Large capital flows into spot ETFs could become the trigger.

**Scenario 3: Full Maintenance of Tariffs**
The dollar strengthens, and fiscal issues are temporarily sidelined. Risk assets may face pressure, but Bitcoin's safe-haven attributes will also be reassessed.

In the next 48 hours, the market's focus is not on Bitcoin itself but on how this judicial ruling will price the future of the United States. Holders should be prepared, as they may experience a rather intense shakeout.