#密码资产动态追踪 The scene at the start of 2026 is simply a carefully scripted "mystery drama" by market writers.

First, let's look at the surface prosperity: the S&P 500 rose 1.6% over the week, and the Russell 2000 small caps were even more dramatic, soaring by 4.6%. VOE attracted $10 billion in weekly inflows, making it look like money was pouring in rain. Retail investors are excited, big players are busy, and Wall Street is filled with bullish sentiment.

But turn around and look again—the problem arises—unemployment rate is falling (on the surface, everyone has found a job), yet new job creation is shrinking. This data combination is practically giving the Federal Reserve a tough puzzle: one signal says the economy is okay, another says growth is slowing down. How will Powell decide? Cutting rates risks inflation rebound, raising rates risks economic stall. Even Bank of America can't stand it anymore and directly issued a statement: until a successor is in place, don't expect rate cuts.

**The real test is next week—**

On the evening of January 13 at 21:30, the core CPI data will be released. This number is as critical to the Fed as a heartbeat monitor. If inflation hasn't truly returned to the target level, policy shifts are off the table.

On January 14 at 21:30, retail sales and PPI will be released simultaneously. Retail sales reflect how fat the wallets of American consumers are, while PPI shows whether factory production costs are rising again. These two data points are like a double diagnosis of the economy—one looks at demand, the other at supply.

On January 15, Thursday at 21:30, initial jobless claims and manufacturing index will arrive. The true temperature of employment data will be clear, and the manufacturing sector's hot or cold state will be intuitively felt. The confusing data from earlier will be clarified here.

Besides the data itself, Federal Reserve officials will take turns speaking next week. Every word they say could trigger market waves—are they hinting at continued pause, or signaling a hawkish stance? Assets like $BTC, $ETH, and $PEPE are most sensitive to the Fed's attitude; even a slight wind can cause volatility.

Geopolitics shouldn't be overlooked either; the U.S. Secretary of State's trip to Scandinavia might stir some unexpected variables.

Back to the core question: in the Fed's first decision of 2026, will they prioritize fighting inflation or reluctantly choose to protect economic growth? This week in the crypto market is essentially a gamble on how the Fed will choose. The upcoming data releases are the "nuclear trigger" points for this gamble.

What do you think? Share your thoughts in the comments, and let's witness together how this week's market drama unfolds.