#美国非农就业数据未达市场预期 Mixed non-farm data signals conflicting messages, BTC repeatedly swings around the $90,000 level

U.S. December employment data is out, with only 50,000 new jobs—this is the weakest annual increase since 2020, far below market expectations. Ironically, the unemployment rate actually fell to 4.4%, which has completely muddied the market sentiment. The economy is indeed slowing down, but the resilience of the labor market remains, and whether it's a "soft landing" or a "recession" is anyone's guess.

What is the most direct result? Market bets on a Fed rate cut in January have plummeted from high expectations to just 5%. In other words, that shot was not fired.

BTC's reaction best illustrates the issue. It hovers around $90,707, indecisive, with neither side willing to bet heavily. Weak employment data was originally a bullish signal for rate cuts, theoretically good for risk assets. But since the unemployment rate didn't fall, the Fed might be more cautious about whether to actually cut rates, which remains a sword hanging overhead. JPMorgan's latest view indicates that ETF outflows have eased somewhat, and the short-term sell-off might not be as fierce, but the direction still depends on clearer macro signals.

From a technical perspective, $90,000 is a key support level. If broken, attention shifts to whether $88,000 can hold. In this high-level oscillation, rather than chasing wild swings, it's better to stay put, wait for the market to digest these conflicting signals clearly, and then act.