From the daily chart perspective, it is still oscillating within a narrow range near 90,000, repeatedly testing key levels. Whether the trend is bullish or bearish, there should be a substantial trend movement here.

Technical analysis:
Weekly MACD has formed a death cross, and the bars are beginning to narrow, indicating momentum is weakening but not yet reversing.
Weekly RSI hovers around 45, neutral leaning weak, not oversold but also not strong.

Key support: around 88,000 (lower boundary of the channel + last year's end liquidation dense zone + 200-day MA support). Once broken, it may quickly drop to 84k-85k for relief.

Resistance above: 94k-95k (previous high + 50-day MA). A breakout is needed to confirm a rebound.

Combining with US stocks: The AI boom + the Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times last year, but this year the market expects only 1-2 cuts in 2026 (CME futures pricing is more dovish, once in April and once in September). Overall liquidity remains tight.

If US stocks continue to oscillate upward, BTC as a risk asset will follow, but it won't be as crazy as last year.

If concerns about the AI bubble and tariff impacts re-emerge, US stocks may pull back, and BTC is likely to fall again with them.

ETF data is very painful: by the end of 2025, there was a massive outflow of $4.5 billion in two months, and in early January this year, another over $1 billion flowed out. However, BlackRock IBIT is still aggressively raising funds (nearly $100 million in a single week), indicating institutions are buying more on dips, while retail/weak hands are selling. This is a true bull market signal—the money hasn't left; it has just shifted to stronger holders.

Likely trend over the next 3 months:
Most probable (65%): Bottoming around 8.8k-9k (within 1-4 weeks), then rebounding to test the psychological barrier of 94k-100k, oscillating to raise the bottom.

Less probable (25%): Directly breaking below 88k and falling to around 84k (if US stocks also fall sharply + ETF continues bleeding), but this is an opportunity to add positions.

Optimistic (10%): Rapidly breaking through 95k and heading towards 105k+ (requiring large capital inflows suddenly or an unexpected dovish stance from the Federal Reserve).

In one sentence: We are currently in the hell mode of a bull market. Many are scared, but the real big money is waiting for you to be afraid before they come in. Don't rush to go all-in, and don't cut losses and run.