The US October trade deficit data has been released, falling to $29.4 billion, a month-on-month decrease of 39%, hitting the lowest level since June 2009. This result far exceeded market expectations (originally forecasted at $58.7 billion), which was quite impressive. But don’t celebrate too early; there’s more to the story.

The sharp decline in imports in October was the main driver, directly related to the surge in imports in September—companies stockpiled goods in advance of the new round of tariffs, causing imports to spike in September and rebound in October. During the same period, October exports increased by 2.6% month-on-month to $302 billion, setting a new record. Such fluctuations in monthly data make it difficult to accurately reflect the true state of the economy.

Looking at the bigger picture is key. In 2024, the total US trade deficit is projected to reach $9.18 trillion (including the trade surplus in services), with the goods trade deficit alone reaching $1.2 trillion. This year? In the first ten months of 2025, the US goods trade deficit has already accumulated to $1.126004 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%. The combined goods and services trade deficit for the first three quarters totaled $767.25 billion, an increase of $112.6 billion compared to the same period last year.

In simple terms, short-term fluctuations in imports and exports can be misleading, but over a longer period, the fundamental expansion of the US trade deficit remains. That old pattern is still in operation and won’t change easily anytime soon.