The Real Face of Bitcoin Whale Signals: Beware of Data Misleading

In early 2025, among investors, “whale accumulation” has become a hot topic, and CryptoQuant senior analyst Julio Moreno has issued a warning. He argues that the widely accepted whale accumulation signals in the market may actually be a data interpretation trap. Moreno’s latest analysis raises the need to fundamentally reassess the reliability of investment decisions.

Illusions Created by Exchange Activity

A significant portion of the “whale accumulation signals” frequently seen in on-chain data originates from normal operational activities of exchange wallets. Fund transfers between exchange addresses or reorganization of cold wallets are often interpreted as deliberate whale buying behavior, leading to misleading indicators for investors, Moreno points out.

Unfiltered data cannot distinguish these exchange activities from whale behavior. As a result, genuine accumulation signals and false signals become mixed, clouding market participants’ judgment.

True Whale Data Shows a Different Picture

When excluding exchange addresses and focusing solely on the activities of pure whale( large individual holders), a different pattern emerges. According to Moreno’s analysis, actual whales are reducing their Bitcoin holdings. This is the opposite of what incomplete filtered data claiming to show accumulation signals suggests.

Currently, Bitcoin address concentration is as follows:

• Top 10 addresses: 5.97%
• Top 20 addresses: 8.53%
• Top 100 addresses: 15.12%

These figures are key indicators for understanding whale holdings concentration and actual accumulation trends.

Why Is This Difference Important?

If investors base their positions on false whale signals, they risk moving against actual whale behavior in the market. Incorrect accumulation signals caused by data distortion can lead to losses. Moreno emphasizes the seriousness of this issue and advocates for sophisticated data filtering and multi-layered verification.

He advises that before making investment decisions, one should examine not only simple indicators but also pure whale data excluding exchange activity, along with multiple sources. In the increasingly complex market of 2025, the ability to accurately interpret information will determine investment success or failure.