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Is a high win rate account on the prediction market leaderboard truly a sign of smart money? Not necessarily.
We collected trading data from over 90,000 wallets for in-depth modeling and analysis, and discovered an interesting phenomenon: most accounts with a win rate above 75% are actually beneficiaries of short-term luck. Survivor bias in small sample sizes creates a false illusion of high win rates. When extending the time horizon, the mathematical expectation of these accounts is actually negative.
This analytical framework is based on our team's on-chain data cleaning and modeling work—supported by concrete numbers, not just empty talk. The full breakdown logic is ready, and industry colleagues are welcome to discuss and verify.