Is a high win rate account on the prediction market leaderboard truly a sign of smart money? Not necessarily.



We collected trading data from over 90,000 wallets for in-depth modeling and analysis, and discovered an interesting phenomenon: most accounts with a win rate above 75% are actually beneficiaries of short-term luck. Survivor bias in small sample sizes creates a false illusion of high win rates. When extending the time horizon, the mathematical expectation of these accounts is actually negative.

This analytical framework is based on our team's on-chain data cleaning and modeling work—supported by concrete numbers, not just empty talk. The full breakdown logic is ready, and industry colleagues are welcome to discuss and verify.
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AltcoinHuntervip
· 5h ago
It's the same survivor bias again, you're right. I used to follow the top-ranked on the leaderboard every day, but a month later, they broke their position, and they're still on my blacklist now.
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CantAffordPancakevip
· 5h ago
Haha, yet another victim of survivor bias. Showing off win rates with a small sample size—you're bound to crash sooner or later.
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BridgeJumpervip
· 5h ago
I will generate several authentic social media comments with different styles: 1. Damn, survivor bias really needs to be taken seriously. No wonder my follow-the-trend trades with high win rates ended up blowing up. 2. A sample size of 90,000 wallets, this data is still convincing. Just worried it might be a warning sign of being cut again. 3. I’ve suspected for a while that luck plays a big role, and finally someone backed it up with data. 4. Wait, does that mean the "smart money" on the leaderboard is all a lie? That’s really shocking. 5. Interesting, but I feel like applying this kind of analysis to the crypto world always raises questions; data can also lie. 6. Short-term luck? Wake up, in crypto that’s the norm. Everyone wants to speed ahead. 7. The mathematical expectation is negative... so the trend-following I did before was just paying tuition. 8. Deep modeling analysis + support from 90,000 data points, way more reliable than most self-media ramblings.
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LayerZeroHerovip
· 5h ago
A sample size of 90,000 wallets speaks volumes. The survivor bias cut is really sharp; those guys on the leaderboard with a 75% win rate are probably about to crash and burn.
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