Tonight at 21:30 US December CPI data will be released. Will it break the market deadlock this time?

Currently, institutions generally expect a figure of 2.7%, which basically means betting on whether US inflation can smoothly come down. In my opinion, this data is as critical as it gets.

Why is the crypto world paying so much attention to this? Let’s break it down simply:

CPI data released → Federal Reserve rate cut room → Global liquidity environment → Capital flowing into or out of the crypto market, this is one chain. Bitcoin and Ethereum, as assets most sensitive to macro risks, will basically react in tandem with the Nasdaq index.

There’s also a subtle point. What is the market betting on now? Betting that the Fed will loosen monetary policy, betting on fiat currency devaluation. Once expectations of rate cuts strengthen, this narrative comes back to life. Conversely, if CPI data is higher than expected, risk sentiment will need to be suppressed, and the crypto market won’t escape unscathed.

Looking at a longer cycle, this year’s CPI data is essentially testing—can inflation in 2026 really fall to the target level? The 2.7% expectation already hints at the market’s optimistic outlook for a smooth process.

Once the data is out, the market’s reaction will be especially quick. The bigger the deviation from expectations, the greater the volatility. Be sure to keep an eye on the screen tonight at 21:30; real-time market movements will be crucial.