#比特币价格预测与走势 Seeing this warning from Bloomberg, the core logic is worth dissecting. McGlone's views boil down to two main points: first, Bitcoin faces dilution effects from millions of competitors; second, a downtrend in risk assets by 2026.

From on-chain signals, such macro pessimistic forecasts usually appear during extreme sentiment. The $50,000 target price is indeed aggressive, but it also reflects some institutional concerns about slowing incremental demand. The key is to observe the actual movements of whale wallets—if large holders continue to sell at high levels, it has some reference value; if they instead accumulate against the trend, then the prediction should be questioned.

The relative strength of gold is a more noteworthy signal. When risk assets are under pressure, capital tends to flow into safe-haven assets faster than expected. I will focus on tracking BTC inflow and outflow data across major exchanges, as well as leverage changes in the derivatives market—if large contracts start to close, it indicates the market has already digested such expectations; otherwise, caution is needed.

Predictions are essentially a game of probabilities, but data does not lie.