#美国非农就业数据未达市场预期 Tonight, the US CPI release—this isn't a black-and-white judgment, but a concentrated emotional trigger.

Every time this kind of data comes out, the market will shake wildly for about 20 to 30 minutes. It may seem like the data itself is so important, but the real key is that it instantly triggers the entire pricing chain:

CPI data → Changes in inflation expectations → Reassessment of Federal Reserve policy → Flow of funds and sentiment

Once this chain is triggered, algorithmic trading, quantitative funds, and sentiment-driven trading all rush in simultaneously. No one can avoid it.

What is the market's current consensus expectation? The US November unadjusted CPI year-over-year rate is 2.7%.

**If the data exceeds expectations (>2.7%)**
It means inflation hasn't cooled down much, and there are even signs of "stickiness"—this is not a good signal. Expectations for rate cuts will be pushed further back, the dollar will rebound strongly, and risk assets will be hammered. The crypto market is also likely to come under short-term pressure.

**If the data is moderate (≤2.7%)**
Inflation continues to approach 2%, so the logic for rate cuts can be maintained. Risk appetite will be reactivated, and the crypto market might find opportunities for sentiment recovery.

But here’s the honest truth— as the release time gets closer, the market is already in a state of readiness, on the verge of triggering. There will definitely be volatility tonight, but volatility does not equal trend.

For short-term traders, the real test at this moment isn't how accurate your judgment is, but how disciplined your position management is:

- If you have open positions, cut leverage first
- If you haven't entered yet, wait until the data actually comes out
- In the first few minutes after the release, never chase the trend, and definitely don't gamble on the first candle

The real focus tonight is never about whether you can "guess the CPI correctly," but about how the market re-prices the "rate cut expectations" main theme.

Those who can hold their positions will have the say in the volatility. As long as your chips are still in play, you’re still in the game.