#美国消费者物价指数发布在即 Doing your homework in advance is very important!

This round of inflation data is particularly worth paying attention to. The US government shutdown in October disrupted the data release schedule, leading to distorted statistics in November. Only when December's data is released can we see the true inflation level. The market generally predicts a 0.3% month-on-month increase in the overall CPI, with the core CPI showing the same magnitude.

December's CPI is crucial for the Federal Reserve's decision at the January policy meeting. How exactly will it influence? Let's consider two scenarios:

**Inflation data exceeds expectations (CPI > 2.7%)**

The Federal Reserve will be more determined to keep interest rates unchanged, or even delay rate cuts. Currently, the market assigns a 95% probability that rates will stay steady in January, and higher inflation figures will only reinforce this expectation. The result will be a stronger dollar, rising Treasury yields, and pressure on stocks. JPMorgan estimates that if the core CPI month-over-month rate exceeds 0.45%, the S&P 500 could fall by 1.25%-2.5%. The underlying logic is that inflation remains sticky, still some distance from the Fed's 2% target, and tariffs costs are gradually passing through to consumers. Inflation may continue to exert pressure in the coming months.

**Inflation data below expectations (CPI < 2.7%)**

Conversely—markets will expect the Fed to cut interest rates. When the November CPI was below expectations, the market's expectation for a rate cut in January jumped from 26.6% to 28.8%. The dollar weakens, Treasury yields decline, and stocks rise. If the core CPI month-over-month stays below 0.30%, the S&P 500 could rise by 1.25%-1.75%. Easing inflation pressures give the Fed a reason to cut rates, but remember—November's data was somewhat "inflated" due to the government shutdown, and December's data is the real signal of inflation.

$BTC