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Signs of a Great Depression? Ray Dalio, Founder of Bridgewater, Views the US Economic Crisis

The founder of Bridgewater, who accurately predicted the 2008 financial crisis, has recently issued a major warning: the US economy is not just facing a simple recession, but the existing monetary order could be on the verge of collapse—this situation should be considered on the scale of the 1930s Great Depression.

Why is it so serious? Dalio candidly explained in an interview. Trump’s unpredictable tariff policies are like throwing stones into the global supply chain, causing massive disruption. Coupled with the US’s $38 trillion national debt, the fiscal deficit is becoming unsustainable. The US has entered the most dangerous "fifth stage" of the national cycle—fiscal collapse, escalating conflicts, and beyond that, chaos. What’s more troubling is that international trade agreements are pushing the US further outward, and this isolation could backfire, dragging down the domestic economy and reshaping the global order.

On the surface, the US economy is projected to grow 1.9% in 2025, but internally it’s already rotten. Last year, only 584,000 new jobs were added— the lowest in over twenty years during non-recession periods. Manufacturing and retail sectors are laying off workers, while healthcare and service industries are still hiring. More pessimistic forecasts suggest that by 2026, the unemployment rate could rise to 4.5%, with little momentum for labor market recovery.

Market reactions are the most honest. The US dollar index continues to depreciate, and gold has broken $4,600 to hit a new all-time high. What about Bitcoin? Its "digital gold" attributes are being re-examined, with more people viewing it as a hedge against dollar credit risk.

Dalio emphasizes that this crisis is not inevitable. Debt restructuring has smarter solutions, but current policy chaos is pushing the US into a fire pit.

Question for everyone: Will Dalio’s warning come true this time? Will the US monetary order truly face problems, and can Bitcoin absorb this wave of safe-haven capital?