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Recently, the market has been buzzing about one thing: BlackRock's Fixed Income Chief Rick Rieder is a hot contender to become the next Federal Reserve Chair. In a recent interview, he clearly stated that interest rates must be lowered to 3% to reach a reasonable level, which is at least 50 basis points lower than the current rate.
What’s more noteworthy is that he is scheduled to meet with Trump next Thursday. Amid expectations of a Fed leadership change during an election year, the market is beginning to reprice this variable. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 are both hitting record highs, indicating one thing: the expectation of rate cuts has already been fully reflected in the stock market.
From his investment logic, a 3% interest rate is close to the neutral rate of the economy, leaving room for economic growth. However, he is cautious about small-cap stocks, emphasizing the need for balanced asset allocation, and specifically mentioning that 2026 will be "a game for prudent investors, not a playground for risk-takers." The message is clear: the high-volatility speculative phase may be coming to an end.
If the Fed indeed changes leadership, will policy implementation become more aggressive? How long can this liquidity feast last? What impact will these changes have on the cryptocurrency market? All are worth close observation.