At 21:30 tonight, the US will release the December CPI inflation data, with a market consensus expectation of 2.7%. This data almost determines the future direction of crypto assets—it’s like a fuse.

From the perspective of the rate cut window, January is basically out, but there’s still a chance in March and April during Powell’s term. Assuming tonight’s data meets expectations or even beats the 2.7% forecast, it indicates that inflation is truly easing, and the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates again this year. In that case, market liquidity could recover, hot money might flow into risk assets, and crypto prices could easily rise.

Conversely, if the data exceeds expectations and surges higher, hopes for rate cuts will be completely dashed, and the situation could reverse—selling waves may hit, and crypto prices could come under pressure.

In plain terms, this night’s data affects the US dollar index, global liquidity, and in turn influences the entire crypto market sentiment. There’s no way around it; we must keep a close eye today.