Tonight at 9:30 PM US CPI data will be released, and this could be the most tense moment in the crypto circle recently.

Inflation expectations will be adjusted according to the Federal Reserve's stance. CICC has already issued a warning: January CPI is very likely to show a compensatory increase, which will directly affect the pace of interest rate cuts. If the data exceeds expectations, the room for rate cuts will immediately shrink, global liquidity will tighten, and high-risk assets like BTC will be among the first to be sold off. Conversely, if inflation truly cools down, the expectation of rate cuts can be realized, and a large influx of funds will continuously flow into the crypto market, with a high probability that BTC will surge—after all, it is currently oscillating around the $90,000 mark.

But that’s not all. A series of recent actions by Trump have further fueled the market. He not only finalized a pro-cryptocurrency Federal Reserve chair candidate but is also pushing forward with a major plan to establish a Bitcoin strategic reserve, even suggesting using tax revenues to directly purchase BTC—fulfilling a promise to his crypto supporters. Looking back, when he officially announced including BTC into the strategic reserve, the crypto market exploded, with BTC surging over $10,000 in a single day, showing how sensitive the market is to these policies.

Now the entire crypto circle is watching the CPI data as the trigger point. On one side is the hard logic of inflation, and on the other is the strong resonance of policy expectations. The combination of these forces will inevitably lead to very volatile fluctuations in BTC tonight. But as the old saying goes, in such multi-variable scenarios, the risk of chasing highs or selling lows is especially high, so it’s better to think more about your own risk tolerance.