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Tonight, the US CPI data will be released, and the market is holding its breath. The market consensus generally points to a month-on-month increase of around 0.3%—which is undoubtedly a heavy blow to investors who have been shouting "rate cuts soon" since the beginning of the year.

Predictions are mostly consistent, with the range being squeezed tightly: between 0.2% and 0.4%. The current suspense is not whether it will rise or not, but rather "how much it will rise." Service sector prices remain resilient, and the "gray rhino" of rental costs still cannot be pushed down, indicating inflationary pressures may be on the rise again.

Core CPI month-on-month and year-on-year remain at a high of 2.7%, giving the hawkish faction of the Federal Reserve more influence.

Data from the CME FedWatch tool is quite alarming—the market's expectation of rate cuts before June has fallen to less than 30%. Traders' patience is truly running out.

If tonight's data really hits 0.3% or higher, the script will need to be rewritten immediately. The US dollar is likely to surge, risk assets may come under collective pressure, and the market's original timetable for rate cuts? It will probably be pushed further back.

The first test of 2026 is here. Buckle up, market volatility could strike at any moment.

(Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Invest cautiously.)