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What does it mean for the US dollar, gold, and crypto assets?
If Waller becomes Federal Reserve Chair, the impact will not be limited to US Treasuries and the stock market but will quickly spread to the US dollar, precious metals, and crypto assets.
First is the US dollar. Waller's policy style naturally provides medium-term support for the dollar because:
* Emphasizes inflation control
* More sensitive to monetary discipline
* Reduces long-term depreciation expectations
Next is gold. In the short term, hawkish expectations may cause fluctuations in gold prices, but in the medium to long term, they do not constitute a fatal negative. The reason is that high interest rates do not necessarily mean high real returns. As long as fiscal and debt issues persist, gold's hedging value remains valid.
As for crypto assets, the impact is more differentiated:
* Bitcoin is closer to a "macro asset," with relatively controllable shocks
* Altcoins with high leverage and strong narratives are more likely to be under pressure
Waller is not necessarily "anti-crypto," but he is unlikely to backstop risk assets. This means that the crypto market will rely more on its own cycles and capital efficiency in the future, rather than policy dividends.