XRP price faces narrative risk and weak demand: Can the key support at $1.85 trigger a 50% rebound?

In the cryptocurrency market, price movements are often driven by a combination of technical factors, capital flows, and market narratives. For Ripple (XRP), its recent price performance clearly reflects the delicate interplay between “narrative risk” and “technical potential.” According to Gate market data, as of January 26, 2026, XRP’s latest price is $1.87, down 1.26% in the past 24 hours and down 4.33% over the past 7 days. This article will combine the latest market data to conduct an in-depth price analysis of XRP, explore the key factors influencing its future trend, and provide an objective latest price forecast for the token.

Current Market Overview: Data Reveals Short-Term Pressure

Based on the latest real-time quotes provided by the Gate platform, key XRP data are as follows:

• Latest Price: $1.87
• 24-Hour Trading Volume: $107.8M
• Market Cap: $114.4B, approximately 6.06% market share
• 24-Hour Price Range: $1.81 (low) - $1.91 (high)
• Recent Performance: Slight increase of +1.68% over the past 30 days, but a retracement of -39.51% over the past year.

From the data, XRP’s price faces significant resistance in the short term. Its price has adjusted over 4% in the past week, indicating strong selling pressure in the $1.90 to $1.93 range. Meanwhile, the relatively flat 24-hour trading volume (around $107.8M) also suggests that current market demand for this token has cooled, consistent with the trend observed since mid-December last year, setting the tone for the current price analysis.

Technical Analysis and Key Levels: Potential Rebound Structure

From a technical perspective, the XRP/USD trend provides a clear picture of the bulls and bears’ contest.

• Resistance Level: The primary strong resistance is near $2.0850. The price needs to stay above this level consistently, especially breaking through the psychological threshold of $2.10, to reverse the recent downturn and initiate a more convincing upward trend.
• Support Levels: The initial support is near $1.85 (close to the 24-hour low of $1.81 and the current price buffer), with a more critical support around $1.80. If the price can stabilize in this zone, it will help build a foundation for a rebound.
• Medium-Term Momentum: Market observations suggest that XRP’s relative price against Bitcoin (BTC) shows potential for a technical rebound after touching the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, with the exchange rate against BTC possibly rebounding to summer 2023 levels. This could translate into upward momentum for USD prices. However, this first requires breaking through the key resistance levels in USD terms.

Core Challenges: Narrative Risk and Weak Demand

The current price analysis cannot avoid a fundamental issue: narrative risk. Analysts generally point out that XRP’s price largely depends on specific market narratives (such as its disruption of traditional finance, progress in regulatory reconciliation, etc.), rather than sustained, broad underlying demand. Since the end of last year, this narrative momentum seems to have weakened, leading to insufficient buying pressure.

Additionally, macro-level events add uncertainty to XRP’s valuation. The voting process in the U.S. Senate on the CLARITY Act, which aims to provide clearer regulation for digital assets, is closely watched. Whether the bill passes and the specific provisions it contains could directly or indirectly influence XRP’s valuation and market sentiment—an external variable investors must consider when forecasting token prices.

Market Sentiment and Supply Observation Based on Gate Data

From the Gate market page data, we see:

• Circulating and Supply: XRP’s current circulating supply is approximately 60.85 billion tokens out of a total supply of 99.98 billion. Its market cap to fully diluted market cap ratio is about 60.85%, indicating that a significant portion of tokens remains locked or pending release, with unlocking schedules potentially causing cyclical market impacts.
• Market Sentiment: Current data tags show a bearish sentiment, reflecting a cautious attitude among short-term market participants amid declining prices and shrinking trading volume.
• Historical Position: Compared to its all-time high of $3.65, the current price still has about a 48.8% gap, illustrating both its past glory and the substantial rally needed to recover from the bear market.

XRP Price Forecast: Cautiously Optimistic with Bulls and Bears

Based on technical analysis, fundamental narratives, and the latest market data, we maintain a cautiously optimistic neutral outlook for XRP’s latest price forecast:

• Short-term (next 1-4 weeks): The price may fluctuate within $1.80 to $2.10. If it successfully absorbs selling pressure near $1.85 and stabilizes above $1.90, it could test the resistance at $2.0850. Conversely, if it breaks below the critical support at $1.80, further decline toward support levels is possible.
• Mid-term (within 2026): According to existing models and market consensus, XRP’s average price in 2026 may hover around $1.87, with a volatility range estimated between $1.61 and $1.93. Whether it can break above this upper bound depends on overall market recovery, renewed XRP narratives (such as new major partnerships or regulatory approvals), and a substantive increase in trading demand.
• Long-term Outlook: Some models project more distant forecasts, such as reaching around $4.62 by 2031, but this involves many assumptions and variables with high uncertainty. These are only potential scenarios based on specific models, not definitive predictions.

Summary

XRP’s price is at a critical crossroads. On one hand, technical charts suggest significant rebound potential if key support levels hold (e.g., potential 50% upside as mentioned in the analysis); on the other hand, “narrative risk” and short-term demand weakness form realistic price ceilings. Regulatory developments, especially progress on the CLARITY Act, will be key external catalysts influencing mid-term narratives.

For investors focusing on XRP, close monitoring of its price action within the $1.80 to $2.10 key zone is essential. On the Gate platform, you can access the most real-time, comprehensive XRP market data, depth charts, and market information to support your independent decisions. The market is always changing—only data-driven, calm price analysis can better prepare you for future volatility and opportunities.