Six crypto trends that will transform a market and the entire sector in 2026

Mercado Bitcoin, one of Latin America’s leading crypto platforms, has published an extensive study analyzing six key shifts that will redefine the crypto market in 2026. The predictions from this Brazilian mercado offer insights into how institutional investments, regulation, and technological innovation are shaping the sector.

Bitcoin reaches new defensive asset perspective

The report projects that bitcoin (BTC) could rise to 14% of the total gold market capitalization by the end of 2026 — a significant shift from the current level of 5.65%. Under this calculation, the price of bitcoin would more than double, assuming other factors remain constant.

This scenario reflects bitcoin’s growing role as a store of value, especially compared to gold, which faces logistical constraints in transportation and storage. The valuation is not purely speculative but based on a framework developed by Mercado Bitcoin in collaboration with researchers from the University of California (UCLA).

The “Bitcoin Valuation Framework” applies a Total Addressable Market (TAM) approach to the global store of value sector. The analysts use gold as the primary benchmark and calculate what market share bitcoin could capture under various adoption scenarios. Bitcoin’s appeal as an alternative to traditional safe havens is strengthened by its digital nature, borderless accessibility, and self-custody capabilities.

Institutional adoption accelerates this trend: treasuries worldwide have accumulated more than 1.09 million bitcoins, demonstrating that BTC is no longer seen as a niche investment instrument. The current BTC price of $78.44K provides a support point for further growth under these scenarios.

Stablecoins as infrastructure layer reach billion-dollar levels

The stablecoin sector is evolving from a purely trading instrument to an essential payment method for cross-border transactions. Mercado Bitcoin forecasts expansion to a $500 billion market cap in 2026, driven by regulatory clarity and diversification beyond USD-pegged tokens.

In 2025, the stablecoin market grew by nearly 50% year-over-year, indicating how rapidly this infrastructure layer is adopting. Currently, the total market cap stands at $307 billion, with Tether’s USDT as the dominant player (60.5% market share according to DeFiLlama data).

The report emphasizes that stablecoins provide liquidity and enable secure fund transfers without exposure to the volatility of other digital assets. Non-USD stablecoins are playing an increasing role, especially in regions seeking monetary autonomy.

Altcoin ETFs and tokenized assets: two pillars of institutionalization

U.S. regulators began approving altcoin ETFs at the end of 2025, channeling capital flows into projects like XRP, Solana, and Chainlink. XRP ETFs manage approximately $1.47 billion, while Solana ETFs are attracting another $1.09 billion according to SoSoValue.

Mercado Bitcoin expects the altcoin ETF segment to grow to at least $10 billion by the end of 2026, with XRP and Solana likely representing about 80% of the new inflows. This definition excludes Bitcoin and Ethereum and is limited to funds traded on regulated markets.

Alongside this, the tokenization of physical assets will grow explosively. The global volume of tokenized assets is expected to increase by 200% and surpass $54 billion. Regulatory breakthroughs in major markets — including EU approval for larger permissioned blockchain volumes and U.S. recognition of blockchain-based asset registrations — make this possible.

Top institutions including BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, and WisdomTree have already launched tokenized funds. This step legitimizes tokenization as a reliable means of bringing traditional assets onto blockchain systems, offering benefits in efficiency and accessibility.

Prediction markets grow 25-fold in two years

Prediction markets are the fastest-growing crypto segment. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi enable users to bet on future events — from political elections to sports results and climate scenarios.

Mercado Bitcoin predicts that capital in these markets could reach $20 billion by the end of 2026, a 25-fold increase from less than $1 billion today. This growth is driven by major global events: the 2026 World Cup, elections in large economies, and emerging entertainment and climate-related markets.

The peer-to-peer model of these platforms and the symmetrical incentives between users and operators will further stimulate growth.

AI agents: autonomous engines for on-chain activity

The integration of AI agents into blockchain ecosystems marks a fundamental shift. These autonomous entities make decisions and execute transactions independently, supported by new technical standards such as x402 and ERC-8004 that ensure transparency, traceability, and micro-payments.

Mercado Bitcoin estimates that trading volume by AI agents could exceed $1 million per day in 2026 — a fourfold increase from current levels. This forecast signals how AI technology is fundamentally transforming the operational efficiency of crypto markets.

A mercado perspective on structural changes

Together, these six trends are not passing cycles but structural shifts. Mercado Bitcoin’s predictions reflect how mainstream acceptance, regulatory clarity, and technological innovation reinforce each other. Bitcoin’s position as a store of value, the maturing of stablecoins as a payment system, institutionalization via ETFs and tokenization, and the rise of prediction markets and AI engines collectively indicate that 2026 will be a turning point for crypto markets.