Trading at support: the market is in a critical zone where short-term decisions require precise adjustment of risk levels. The medium-term growth potential, if support holds, is estimated to be above 60%, with approximately a 40% chance of a short-term decline. The ratio of probabilities for short-term growth to decline is 1.5:1, indicating a cautious bullish sentiment prevailing amid high volatility.$BTC

Bullish scenario: extreme fear index 15(, consolidation of institutional positions by MicroStrategy, support at fundamental levels of 75,000 USD, and RSI falling into the 22–35 range signal a possible technical rebound.
**Short-term buy📈**
Entry: 75,500 USDT ), position 40% (
Stop-loss: 73,200 USDT
Take-profit: 84,000 USDT

Bearish scenario: dominance of negative ETF flows ), amounting to −1.3 billion USD (, increased whale selling activity, and MACD in the negative zone increase the risk of support being broken.
**Short-term sell📉**
Entry: 74,900 USDT
Stop-loss: 76,800 USDT
Take-profit: 70,500 USDT