The Federal Reserve is like a weather forecast, but traders can't carry an umbrella every day

Recently, when discussing macroeconomics, the market tends to fall into two extremes:
One treats the Federal Reserve as an "omnipotent observer," making decisions on bullish or bearish trends with a single statement;
The other simply ignores it, believing that candlestick charts are the ultimate truth.
My view is more pragmatic—
Macroeconomics is like climate, and market trends are like weather.
Climate determines the seasons' warmth or cold, but whether you wear a T-shirt or a coat today depends on the temperature.
Macro policies set the overall direction, but short-term rises and falls are more influenced by capital structure and sentiment.
Currently, Fed expectations do impact liquidity pricing, but the crypto market is no longer driven by macro factors alone:
ETF flows, on-chain activity, narrative rotations—all are dispersing influence.
So my strategy:
👉 Use macro judgment to determine the cycle
👉 Use technical analysis to decide entry and exit points
👉 Use position management to hedge against uncertainty
Macro is like navigation, not the steering wheel.
The real driver is still yourself.
Interaction:
Do you trust macro analysis more, or do you trust candlestick charts more?
#美联储人事与宏观政策影响