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#美联储人事与宏观政策影响 The market is in extreme fear! $70 billion in market capitalization has evaporated, and the new Federal Reserve Chair becomes a key variable.
Trump publicly expressed hope that the new Fed Chair, Kevin Woor, would cut interest rates, calling him "very excellent," and may gain support from the Democratic Party.
The game between rate cut expectations and the Fed's independence will become the core variable in the market moving forward, with Woor's policy inclination directly affecting liquidity trends.
Market views suggest that if the current crash is triggered by expectations of Woor's appointment, it could actually be a good thing — the market has already priced in his "bearish" outlook, and any subsequent hawkish-to-dovish shift will push prices higher. The existence of expectation gaps sets the stage for a rebound, and overly pessimistic pricing actually reduces the risk of further decline.
Currently, the market is in a period of "panic release" and "expectation game": extreme values in the fear and greed index, liquidity shortages, unrealized losses in core accounts, and other signals all point to short-term emotional overreactions; meanwhile, Cathie Wood's emphasis on asset allocation, Tom Lee's observation of gold's leading role, and the expectation gap after Woor's appointment reveal long-term opportunities behind the panic.
Historical patterns show that the extreme fear zone is often a window for deploying core assets, and the expectation gap of Fed policies may serve as a catalyst for trend reversals.
In the short term, we should remain cautious of the $80,000 short liquidation level and volatility caused by liquidity shortages, but from a long-term perspective, the rotation pattern between gold and crypto, along with asset allocation needs, provides upward momentum for the market.
In an emotion-driven environment, it is more important to distinguish between "short-term noise" and "long-term logic" — panic is not the end, but a test of quality assets. Once liquidity returns and policy expectations become clearer, the recovery of core assets is worth looking forward to.