Two indices are recovering, beginning to test and experiment

StrawberryIce · 2026-03-01T10:11:52+00:00

The article discusses the resonance phenomenon in the stock market, especially the continued effectiveness of the resonance between weights and indices. Since 924, each upward wave in the market has been accompanied by short-term profit-taking effects, and the future expectation is that a consensus will form amid fluctuations. As the index reaches new highs, signs of individual stock rotation become apparent. Subjective judgment can gradually attempt arbitrage and adjust positions based on market changes.

StrawberryIce

2026-03-01 10:11:52

Abstract generation in progress

When mentioning the main trend, there are three resonance points that are often discussed: emotional resonance, weighting resonance, and index resonance. [Taogu Ba]

The discussion on emotional cycles has become less frequent and is gradually losing effectiveness. Weighting and index resonance remain valid. Looking back at the market since September 24, each upward wave of the All A Index has shown a short-term profit opportunity. In fact, if we go back three or five years, all major cycles also resonate with the index.

The top chart shows from September 24 to April 2025. The bottom chart shows from April last year to now.

It can be seen that during the index’s upward phase, leading mainline stocks with strong market capacity often appear. During the chaotic or consolidating phases when the index just starts to rise, independent stocks tend to form groups. This week, the CSI 2000 and CSI 1000 hit new highs, the CSI 500 is close to a new high, and the All A Index also reached a new high. As more indices hit new highs, a new wave is brewing. Currently, trading volume is not yet active enough, and incremental funds have not yet formed a collective force. It is expected that during the consolidation, a consensus will gradually form. The worst-case scenario is a sideways movement with a few sectors rotating. The pre-holiday stock rotation ended with a decline; after the holiday, fluctuations continue, with disagreements and some recovery, and the market’s loss-making effect has begun to diminish. This is reflected in another index (yesterday’s volume 20), which shows that the loss-making effect is starting to stabilize.

The top chart shows the sector index of yesterday’s volume 20. It tracks the top 20 stocks by trading volume in the previous trading day. For traders focusing on yesterday’s volume stocks, this index is similar to the previously used yesterday’s limit-up index and yesterday’s consecutive limit-up index.

The chart clearly shows the technology acceleration driven by Cambrian and the aerospace acceleration driven by space development. This index clearly reflects the profit and loss effects of market-cap stocks. From the chart, it is also evident that during the Q4 index consolidation phase, the trends of China Fortune Land Development and Pingtan Development were not reflected in this index, as they were only localized trends at the time. During the holiday before the Spring Festival, the index continued to decline, making losses easy. In the last two days of this week, attempts to stabilize have been made, combined with the new highs of the All A Index. Subjectively, I believe this is a good starting point for arbitrage, gradually trying out strategies. If the market deteriorates again during this process, compare the two indices, adjust positions, and control trading frequency.

The stocks I am watching were already mentioned in the comments on Friday; I will update if there are new developments.

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