[Red Envelope] 3.1 Weekend Hot Topics Full Analysis: Core Logic + Target Anchoring + Operation Breakdown

First like, then watch, daily income exceeds ten thousand. [Taogu Ba]

U.S.-Iran Geopolitical Conflict:

The event of the U.S. and Israel opening a war against Iran is, logically, expected. Recently, funds have been focusing on this area for deployment. Now that it has fermented, everyone should calmly observe the situation. This marks the implementation of the event, meaning market sentiment is being realized. However, it also impacts the broader market; tomorrow, the market is likely to open lower, so don’t rush to sell your holdings. After the event occurs, the market needs time to digest, at most two days. Due to external conflict impacts—oil, maritime transportation, military industry, resources—short-term performance may occur, but it’s advisable to prevent high open and then decline. Those with early positions can gradually realize profits, while those without should avoid blindly chasing to prevent being caught off guard. (Old Deng believes this war is purposeful. Since we lack early positions, it’s best to mainly buy on dips or observe. Avoid falling into the trap of realizing gains and becoming a bagholder.)**

1. Oil and Petrochemicals (Core beneficiaries of U.S.-Iran conflict)

Sentiment Leader: Intercontinental Oil & Gas (Monitor its consecutive limit-up streak and volume changes; during shrinking volume acceleration, avoid chasing highs; when divergence causes volume to increase and retest the 5-day moving average, consider light positions for trial; if it breaks down, exit decisively.)

Mid-tier: Zhongman Petroleum, Sinopec (at the 10-day moving average level)

Trend: Shandong Molong (Use the 20-day moving average as a support; hold if it doesn’t break; reduce if it breaks.)

Arbitrage: Tongyuan Petroleum (Follow sector sentiment for intraday dips and rebounds; mainly for next-day arbitrage, avoid holding long-term.)

Fermentation logic: U.S. and Israel jointly strike Iran; Iran announces 40 days of national mourning and vows revenge; the Strait of Hormuz shipping security is impacted. Market expects international oil prices to jump at the opening on March 2, with Brent crude potentially hitting $80/barrel. Oil extraction and oil service industries directly benefit from rising oil prices and geopolitical risk premiums. Short-term sentiment is high; medium-term depends on conflict duration and oil price resilience at high levels.

2. Shipping (Reshaping energy transportation landscape)

Sentiment Leader: COSCO Shipping Energy (Support at the 5-day moving average)

Mid-tier: COSCO Shipping Holdings (Support at the 5-day moving average)

Mid-tier: China Merchants South Oil (Support at the 5-day moving average)

Fermentation logic: Expectations of Strait of Hormuz blockade increase, causing crude oil transportation costs to surge. Container shipping faces increased Suez Canal transit risks, forcing global routes to reroute around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, boosting demand and freight rates. The sector is experiencing a short-term boom.

2026 Core Logic:

1. Computing Power Collaboration

On February 11, central enterprises announced policies for “computing power + electricity” coordinated development, focusing on efficient matching of energy supply and computing demand. Targets with integrated main businesses have the greatest advantage.

Integrated Power and Computing:

Yunnan Energy Holdings (Top-tier, difficult to participate)

GCL New Energy (Recently opened high, potential at 5-day line)

Jinkai Energy (Breakthrough of resistance, potential for rebound)

TBEA (5-day trend)

State Grid South China (5-day trend)

Sifang Co. (5-day trend)

Electric Power:

Southern Power Grid (Strong at 5-day trend)

Gannan Energy (Follow Yunnan Energy)

Huaneng Power (Follow Yunnan Energy)

Data Center & Computing Power:

Huasheng Tiancheng (Sentiment leader, mainly buy on dips at 5-day line)

Litong Electronics (Arbitrage use)

David Technology (Volume at bottom, buy low and sell high)

Meili Cloud (Arbitrage)

Runze Technology (Arbitrage, buy dips)

Wangsu Technology (Arbitrage, buy dips)

Trading idea: Focus on leading stocks in the sector. Pay attention to whether Yunnan Energy can continue rallying. For computing power, monitor Huasheng Tiancheng and overall sector volume. If multiple stocks hit the daily limit, consider trying; if divergence appears, observe.

2. Quantum Technology

The 2026 Two Sessions will be held on March 5. Strategic emerging industries like quantum information and future industries are key policy focuses. Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, and other regions have already clarified quantum tech as a new growth point. Likely, the national two sessions will introduce special support policies, combined with pre-holiday capital rush, creating a double catalyst of policy expectation and capital deployment—an ideal pre-annual meeting opportunity.

Gele Software (Currently the leader in quantum, one-time surge on Friday, no better opportunities now)

USTC National Innovation (Stabilized after correction, potential at 5-day line)

Shenzhen Information (Buy on dips at 10-day line)

Dahua Intelligent (Volume expansion entry)

Trading idea: Use Gele Software as a fermentation point; continued one-word surge on Monday could drive other stocks in the sector. If it explodes, those with early positions can observe; otherwise, it’s better to look for opportunities to buy Gele.

3. Stablecoins (License approval countdown, policy + industry dual drive, new track opportunity)

Stablecoins are entering a phase of policy implementation and industry layout: ① Hong Kong will issue the first stablecoin issuer licenses in March, with digital asset policies introduced within the year, legalizing the industry; ② Meta plans to enter the stablecoin field by 2026, with overseas giants’ deployment boosting industry heat. As an important branch of digital currency, after licenses are granted, the industry shifts from “pilot” to “commercialization,” benefiting sectors like payments, blockchain infrastructure, and digital security.

Yuyin Shares (Industry chain support, surged to limit on Friday, good opportunity gone, consider early positions)

Dongxin Heping (Exit at 10-day line)

Hengbao Shares (Exit at 10-day line)

Lakala (Pre-landing position before project implementation)

New Guodu (Pre-landing position before project implementation)

Trading idea: After sector fermentation, choose late-stage arbitrage. Keep an eye on Yuyin Shares. Before March license issuance, consider laying out Lakala and Sifang Jingchuang; after licensing, take profits at high. If licensing is delayed, reduce positions promptly to avoid hype reversal. Focus on Lakala and Dongxin Heping—Lakala benefits from commercialization of stablecoins; Dongxin Heping is core to digital security, buy on dips at 10-day line for wave opportunities. Policy timing is key; if licenses are delayed, reduce holdings accordingly.

4. AI Applications (DeepSeek V4 + Huawei Code Intelligent Agent, dual industry catalysts)

AI applications are experiencing intensive industry catalysts: ① DeepSeek will likely release the large model V4 next week, already tested on Huawei and domestic chips; V4 Lite supports 1 million tokens context + multimodal reasoning, greatly improving inference speed; ② Huawei Cloud’s Code Intelligent Agent beta is live, covering all AI programming scenarios. These catalysts directly boost demand for AI programming, large models, and computing infrastructure, shifting AI from concept hype to product deployment and technological breakthroughs.

Supporting large models / computing power: Lehexing, Saiwei Electronics, Xinjin Power

AI programming / intelligent agents: Sifang Jingchuang, Jindai, Xinjun Network

Industry chain resilience: Kede Education

Trading idea: Focus on the best-performing segments. If a particular product ferments well, deploy accordingly; if not, monitor the laggards. Keep an eye on DeepSeek V4 news—before deployment, buy on dips in Sifang Jingchuang and Xinjin Power; after news release, take profits at high. Huawei-related stocks like Jindai may retrace to 5-day line for testing; if broken, exit. Saiwei Electronics and Sifang Jingchuang benefit from domestic chip adaptation for large models and AI programming, respectively. Buy on dips at 10-day line for wave opportunities.

5. Commercial Space

In 2026, core focus is on rocket recovery technology verification. Once achieved, orders for rockets and satellites will explode, coupled with SpaceX IPO boosting domestic industry valuation.

Core stocks: Xinwei Communications, Western Materials, Tongyu Communications, Chaojie Materials

National team: China Satellite, China Satellite Communications

Trading idea: Buy on dips for potential; if breakdown occurs, exit. Policy benefits from Two Sessions may push prices higher; monitor rocket recovery tech and SpaceX IPO news. Short-term driven by sentiment, medium-term depends on industry landing progress.

Other directions see the link below:

Seven major themes, underlying logic + leading stocks + operation ideas. Post-holiday high open, no panic—read carefully for precise entry.

https://m.tgb.cn/a/2pEh6Hp5n3a

In March, the market will be driven mainly by policies and industry catalysts. The Two Sessions window is the core trading node. All operations should focus on “benefits realized upon policy landing, sector hype not overextending, performance fulfillment as core.” Five main lines: technology, price increases, computing power, AI applications, power grid. Pay attention to arbitrage opportunities in quantum tech, commercial space, stablecoins, geopolitical conflicts. Strictly follow position and risk control rules. Make money on what you understand!

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