[Red Envelope] After the black swan, what’s next? Where there's danger, there's opportunity. Next week, the potential direction is coming into view!

[Stock Forum]
This weekend, significant events occurred overseas, and the Middle East situation has changed. So, what impact does this have on the A-shares? Where are the opportunities in the future market?
Looking at the history of A-shares, when external geopolitical conflicts arise, it is highly likely that A-shares will open lower tomorrow. However, even if they open lower, in most cases, they tend to rebound and move higher. Therefore, I believe there is no need to worry too much. But, we should pay attention to any changes in the attitude of Xiao Yi.
Additionally, the National Two Sessions will be held next week. Historically, during the Two Sessions, the market mostly oscillates or remains stable.
In terms of trend, the Shanghai Composite Index has shown a pattern of two positive days sandwiching a negative day, with the low point of the negative candle generally providing support. Therefore, next week, focus on the support level at the February 26 low of 4127 points.
The sectors to watch are mainly three: first, oil transportation; second, chemicals; third, non-ferrous metals, especially military industry metals such as rare earths, tungsten, titanium, and antimony.
The most critical point is the Strait of Hormuz, a key energy hub in the Middle East, with about 20 million barrels of oil passing through daily, accounting for 20% of global oil supply. China’s crude oil imports are about 50% from the Middle East, with nearly 90% passing through this strait. A long-term blockade would directly hinder oil exports, force rerouting of transportation routes, significantly increase time and costs, and push up international oil prices, benefiting oil transportation demand. High oil prices will further transmit to the industrial chain, driving up prices of related chemical products.

**But the most important thing, in my opinion, is: **
We should be grateful to our great motherland!

This world is full of turbulence, but our country has protected us very well!

Other news and market directions:
Headline: The “Financial Times” and “Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily” jointly reveal explosive news — DeepSeek will release a major announcement next week! The new multimodal large model V4 is about to debut. This is not just a regular update; it marks a crucial step for Chinese AI from “hardware chasing” to “setting its own rules”! The last release of the 2025 R1 model caused a 17% single-day drop for Nvidia. This time, V4 is even more aggressive, with breakthroughs in technology, cost, and ecosystem.

1. The M military used Anthropic’s Claude AI technology in Middle East airstrikes for intelligence analysis, target recognition, and operational planning, with AI deeply integrated into combat command processes.
2. Industry insiders reveal that US aerospace and semiconductor suppliers are facing severe rare earth shortages, with at least two companies refusing some orders; key materials like yttrium and scandium are in tight supply.
3. Market rumors suggest that SpaceX, under Elon Musk, is considering secretly filing for an IPO as early as March, with a target valuation exceeding $1.75 trillion, potentially the largest IPO in history.
4. The MLCC industry shows a clear warming trend, with multiple manufacturers reporting continued demand recovery; prices of some high-spec products have risen 10-15% from previous lows, indicating an industry cycle of price increases.
5. Dapao (Da Piao Piao) is demanding that large tech companies pay for all AI computing power electricity costs. Several AI companies have started building their own power plants to ensure supply and control costs.

Tomorrow’s outlook:
The positive news in oil, gas, and non-ferrous metals gives an early advantage. Personally, I don’t recommend chasing highs; not every hot topic needs participation, especially those heavily influenced by international situations, which are difficult to predict. When not yet confirmed, prices tend to rise; once confirmed and executed—especially if a successful targeted strike—there’s a high chance of profit-taking. Those with early positions tomorrow should expect some profit realization.

Methanol and strontium carbonate (celestite) are not at high positions, so it’s worth watching for opportunities. The specific details are for reference only.

Based on methanol, celestite, sulfur, and bromine, here are some related companies:

1. Methanol (Iran accounts for 18% of global exports; China relies heavily on imports)

• Baofeng Energy: Leading coal-based methanol producer, with a capacity of about 7.4 million tons/year, significant cost advantage, high import substitution potential.
• China Coal Energy: Over 4 million tons/year methanol capacity, integrated coal chemical industry, balancing scale and cost.
• Yankuang Energy: Over 3 million tons/year coal-based methanol capacity, integrated coal chemical layout.
• Hualu Hengsheng: Coal-based methanol + olefins integration, strong cost control, high performance elasticity.
• Guanghui Energy: 1.2 million tons/year coal-based methanol, co-producing LNG, regional advantages evident.
• Jinnuo Chemical: Main methanol producer, operating at full capacity and sales, highly sensitive to prices.

2. Celestite (strontium mineral, Iran accounts for about 60% of China’s imports)

• Hongxing Development: Domestic leader in strontium salts, owns high-grade celestite mines, self-sufficient in strontium carbonate (~60%), leading domestic market share.
• Jinrui Mining: Holds Qinghai Dafengshan strontium mine, with a capacity of 20,000 tons/year of strontium carbonate, high resource self-sufficiency.

3. Sulfur (Iran is China’s second-largest import source, accounting for 31%)

• Yuegui Co.: Domestic leader in pyrite ore, with 208 million tons of high-grade pyrite, large sulfur concentrate and sulfuric acid capacity, unaffected by import disruptions.
• Sinopec: China’s largest sulfur supplier, with annual capacity over 8 million tons, directly benefiting from rising prices.
• Rongsheng Petrochemical: By-product sulfur capacity of 1.21 million tons/year, integrated refining and chemical production.
• Hengli Petrochemical: Private refining leader, rich in by-product sulfur resources.

4. Bromine (high supply share from the Middle East, reliance on imports domestically)

• Shandong Haihua: Bromine capacity of 10,250 tons/year, No. 1 in A-shares, integrated salt-brine production, maximum performance elasticity.
• Binhua Co.: Bromine capacity of 9,750 tons/year, mostly for self-use, external sales follow price trends.
• Lubei Chemical: Bromine capacity of 5,500 tons/year, supporting salt chemical industry.

Other sectors should be approached with a calm mindset. For some tech trend sectors like AI computing power and advanced processes, short-term geopolitical conflicts won’t change industry trends; they only affect short-term rhythm. For sectors with established industry trends, a dip to open lower tomorrow could be an opportunity from a trend perspective. Additionally, March will see continued momentum in commercial space, with ongoing news catalysts. Last year’s first phase was just a prelude; this year, there is a strong will to push for a slow bull trend, and I remain optimistic.

Tomorrow, focus on two key directions: first, international crude oil movements—news is often lagging, but oil prices are very sensitive; second, since a likely low open is expected, observe which sectors attract funds during the rebound, especially those resonating with the overall market.
The Two Sessions are approaching; the market should stabilize, similar to the March 7, 2018, tariff shock, after which the market became somewhat desensitized. The US-Iran situation is not new; similar events occurred last year when the Strait of Hormuz was closed. This time, it’s more serious, but precise judgment depends on external news flow and tomorrow’s market situation.