If Trump’s statement that the war won’t end unless there is unconditional surrender is true, then everything is turning very red. The world is now truly pricing in war, or rather, we are entering a period where oil will exceed $100, prices will start to rise across the board, and inflation will increase. Along with this, we see surprising data indicating that unemployment is also rising in the US. As you know, if both inflation and unemployment increase simultaneously, this is called Stagflation in economics.

In this current situation, inflation will first rise, and then we might call the subsequent decline a bull market... The tunnel’s end is leading to a troublesome place. Unfortunately, it’s very difficult to speak positively in the short term; at best, it looks like we’re heading into autumn, but the current trend doesn’t seem to be evolving into the best-case scenario, unfortunately.