Shenwan Hongyuan Futures: March is still likely to enter a period of declining freight rates

Strong expectations are driving the market to rise sharply. The IEEPA tariffs were ruled illegal by the Supreme Court, and U.S. Customs officially announced the latest 122 tariffs at 10%. In the short term, there may be a gap in tariff differences, which could lead to a surge in export volume on the Asia-America routes for container shipping. Additionally, market optimism about exports of products like photovoltaics after the March holiday may further boost the route linkage effect, potentially exceeding seasonal volume performance in previous years and driving optimistic post-holiday expectations. Meanwhile, shipping companies are more willing to maintain prices, with MSC and CMA seeing container rates in the first half of March rise by $200 compared to late February. MSK maintained its rates in the first week of March, and the lack of further declines in spot freight rates also makes expectations more optimistic than reality. From a traditional seasonal perspective, especially this year with a late Spring Festival, March is typically the slowest month for post-holiday volume. Given the overall insufficient volume and the competition for exports of products like photovoltaics, the trend is unlikely to change significantly, and a downward period for freight rates is likely to continue. (Shenwan Hongyuan Futures)