Shenwan Hongyuan Futures: IEA Demand Warning Pressures Oil Market

K-LinePoet · 2026-03-06T19:38:03+00:00

The International Energy Agency's report shows that global oil demand growth in 2023 was below expectations, and the market is facing oversupply. It is expected that by 2026, supply will exceed demand by 3.73 million barrels per day, mainly due to increased OPEC+ production. The supply growth forecast has been revised down from 2.5 million barrels to 2.4 million barrels, but it still exceeds demand growth.

K-LinePoet

2026-03-06 19:38:03

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The International Energy Agency stated in its February “Oil Market Monthly Report” on Thursday that global oil demand growth this year will be lower than expected. Despite a supply disruption in January causing a market shortage, the global oil market still faces a significant oversupply. It is projected that by 2026, the global daily oil supply will exceed demand by 3.73 million barrels, roughly the same as last month’s forecast. The faster supply growth compared to demand is mainly due to OPEC+ increasing production starting in April 2025 after years of production cuts. Other oil-producing countries such as the United States, Guyana, and Brazil have also increased output. The IEA has lowered its forecast for global daily oil supply growth this year from 2.5 million barrels per day last month to 2.4 million barrels per day, but this growth rate still far exceeds the pace of demand growth. (Shenwan Hongyuan Futures)

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