Strategic Thinking in the Altcoin Market—Focus on Major Contradictions, Abandon Small Opportunities — Heavy Investment in Big Opportunities, Stay Away from "Mosquito Meat" (3)

Core Logic: In the altcoin market, 99% of opportunities are “trap-like small chances” (such as a 10% rebound driven by small news or oscillations without capital support). Frequent participation will only drain energy and increase the risk of losses. True profits come from “major opportunities driven by fundamental contradictions.”

• How to identify “major contradictions” (3 core dimensions):

◦ Logical Dimension: Is it a “demand at the era level” (e.g., AI empowering blockchain, solving scalability issues), rather than “short-term hype” (e.g., mere concept packaging)?

◦ Capital Dimension: Is there “continuous large capital inflow” (e.g., whale addresses increasing holdings, large withdrawals from exchanges), rather than “retail follow-buy” (trading volume fluctuates wildly, without sustainability)?

◦ Cycle Dimension: Is it in the “early stage of a main upward wave” (the track has just started, most people are still observing), rather than “late stage of a main upward wave” (everyone is calling for buys, and the price has already increased more than 3 times)?

• Three standards to abandon small opportunities:

◦ Profit potential below 10% (after deducting fees and slippage, actual profit is limited);

◦ Vague logic (cannot clearly explain “why it will rise,” only relying on “feelings”);

◦ Small capital volume (24-hour trading volume below $10 million, easy for big players to manipulate).

• Execution principles for heavy investment in major opportunities:

◦ Position allocation: 30%-50% of total funds in major opportunities, no more than 10% in small opportunities;

◦ Entry timing: wait for “divergence to turn into convergence” (e.g., leading coin retraces then resumes volume increase, lesser coins start following), avoid “convergence turning into divergence” (e.g., high-volume stagnation at top);

◦ Patience in holding: do not sell easily if the main upward wave has not broken the 5-day or 10-day moving average; avoid exiting due to short-term 10%-20% fluctuations.

Implementation action: establish an “opportunity screening table.” For each potential opportunity, score it (Logic 30 points + Capital 30 points + Cycle 30 points + Liquidity 10 points). Only those scoring above 80 are considered “major opportunities”; below 60 should be discarded immediately.