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After the first week of the war, we observed a two-phase market reaction.
Phase One:
Markets opened with upward gaps, particularly for oil and gold, and Bitcoin, stocks, and the dollar all rose. ⁉️⁉️⁉️
This clearly indicates that something is amiss: the dollar, gold, stocks, and Bitcoin all rose. This was an initial reaction before the market absorbed the news and the shock.
Phase Two:
The dollar continued to strengthen as a traditional safe haven, while stocks and currencies (such as the euro and the pound sterling) declined, along with Bitcoin. The dollar's strength was reflected in gold prices, which fell to the $5,000 level. With the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, gold fell $200 immediately after the conflict began, then rebounded strongly.
Phase Three:
God knows best, but next week will likely see the third phase. Gold stabilized and began to rise, along with silver. The dollar is trading sideways, while other currencies, particularly the euro and yen, are gradually rising. Stocks and Bitcoin continue to decline. A correction is also possible in oil (depending on developments).
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