Oracle Stock Is Down 20% YTD. Should You Buy ORCL Ahead of Q3 Results?

Software giant Oracle ORCL -1.18% ▼ is scheduled to announce its results for the third quarter of Fiscal 2026 on March 10. The stock has fallen about 20% so far this year as investors weigh the company’s heavy spending on AI infrastructure, rising debt levels, and its large exposure to partners such as OpenAI. Despite the pressure on the stock, Wall Street remains upbeat about Oracle, driven by strong demand for its cloud services.

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Expectations from Oracle’s Results on March 10

The Street expects Oracle to report adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.71, reflecting 16.3% year-over-year growth. Also, sales are expected to jump 20% year-over-year to $16.9 billion.

Historically, Oracle has missed earnings estimates in four of the past nine quarters.

Oracle’s Debt and AI Spending Draw Analyst Concern

Recently, RBC Capital analyst Rishi Jaluria reiterated a Hold rating on Oracle and lowered his stock price target to $160 from $195. He remains cautious on Oracle ahead of its Q3 results, pointing to concerns around Stargate financing, rising debt levels, and execution risks in the company’s cloud expansion. The analyst noted that Oracle had more than $100 billion in total debt as of Q2 FY26, while large capital spending tied to AI data centers continues to pressure free cash flow.

For Oracle, investors will mainly watch cloud growth and AI demand. The company has been signing large cloud deals tied to AI use, which have helped drive strong growth in its cloud unit. Markets will also look for updates on data center build-outs and spending, as Oracle keeps investing to support rising demand for AI computing.

Is ORCL Stock a Buy?

Ahead of Q3 FY26 earnings, Wall Street has a Strong Buy consensus rating on Oracle stock based on 25 Buys and six Holds. The average ORCL stock price target of $278.54 indicates about 81% upside potential.

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