Interpreting the "15th Five-Year Plan" Outline | How to Understand the Four "Growth Points" and Two "Unconventional" Strategies?

On March 13, the “Outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of the People’s Republic of China” (hereinafter referred to as the “Outline”) was officially released.

The Daily Economic News reporter noticed that the “Outline” highlights four “growth points” and two “extraordinary measures.”

What are the potential “growth points” for the next five years? What are the development paths? How should we understand the “unconventional layout”? What are the possible ways to implement the “unconventional measures”? The reporter conducted interviews on these topics.

Driving New Economic Growth Points in Future Industries

“Growth Point” ①

The “Outline” proposes focusing on key areas leading future development, building a comprehensive cultivation system for future industries, and promoting breakthroughs in quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy and nuclear fusion, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, sixth-generation mobile communication, among others, to become new economic growth points.

Many of these fields are currently in laboratories or early demonstration stages. What are the critical crossing points from “technological breakthroughs” to “industrial explosion” in the next five years?

Wan Zhe, Professor at Beijing Normal University and researcher at the Belt and Road Institute: The core crossing point is technological maturity, while cost reduction is key to industrialization. Specifically, there are five points.

First, achieving breakthroughs in engineering and pilot-scale transformation. The main challenge is solving the bottleneck where laboratory samples cannot be mass-produced on production lines. Pathways include establishing verification centers and public pilot platforms to overcome the bottleneck from lab samples to large-scale products, focusing on process stability, safety, and product consistency, significantly improving product completion levels. This process is essentially a critical leap from “1 to 10.”

Second, validating scenarios and closing the loop on business models. This involves leveraging scenarios with rigid demand to drive technology, supported by mechanisms like government procurement to provide compensation. Opening up scenarios creates space for trial, error, and iteration for new technologies, while exploring profitable and replicable business models. The ultimate goal is to reduce dependence on policy subsidies, fostering a positive cycle where scenario validation and business models promote each other, thereby accelerating application adoption.

Third, achieving full industry chain independence and building an ecosystem. Upstream, focus on overcoming bottlenecks in core components, key materials, and high-end equipment; downstream, aim to reduce overall supply chain costs, leverage leading enterprises, cultivate specialized and innovative companies, and form supporting systems and collaborative ecosystems to address the problem of isolated breakthroughs without a complete industry chain.

Fourth, improving standards and regulatory mechanisms. This includes technical standards, product standards, and safety standards, as well as addressing issues like computer ethics and AI ethics, establishing an inclusive yet cautious regulatory model. Fields like brain-computer interfaces, biomanufacturing, and quantum technology pose new challenges to social safety and ethics globally, requiring the development of new standards and regulatory rules to support large-scale promotion with legal and institutional guarantees.

Fifth, building a financial support system, developing long-term capital, and improving risk control and sharing mechanisms. Future industries generally have long cycles, high investments, and high risks, which mismatch traditional short-term profit-driven investments. While government-guided funds have played a guiding role, there is a need to introduce long-term capital, expand financing channels like intellectual property rights financing, optimize equity structures, and establish investment, financing, and risk management systems suited to future industries. The investment philosophy should emphasize “early investment, small-scale, hard technology, and soft strength,” along with improving R&D risk-sharing mechanisms.

Three Industries Are Expected to Lead the Explosion

Which subfields are most likely to achieve scaled output first?

Wan Zhe: Based on industry maturity, biomanufacturing is expected to be the first to explode. Currently, China accounts for over 70% of the world’s bioprocessing output, with many technologies entering initial commercialization stages. Looking ahead, fields driven by synthetic biology, such as pharmaceuticals and bio-feed proteins, may rapidly form industrial-scale output.

The new energy storage industry already has a solid foundation for industrialization. By the end of 2024, China’s installed capacity of new energy storage projects will account for over 40% of the global total, ranking first worldwide.

In hydrogen energy and nuclear fusion, hydrogen energy will develop more rapidly, including green hydrogen production and industrial applications, potentially reaching at least a trillion-yuan scale in output value. Large-scale application of nuclear fusion may still require more time.

In embodied intelligence, consumer robots and humanoid robots are currently highly focused, but industrial scenarios will be the first to realize deployment. According to research, industrial embodied intelligent robots already have a commercial foundation. If core components can be domestically produced within five years to reduce costs, and algorithms improve in generalization, these robots could achieve large-scale deployment in industrial, logistics, and security fields, with relatively mature conditions.

Quantum technology is still in pilot stages, and large-scale application will take time. It is expected that during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, there will be a transition from pilot projects to preparation for broader deployment.

Brain-computer interfaces face multiple constraints, including technical, ethical, and regulatory issues, but they have potential in medical rehabilitation. Based on international experience, the earliest applications are in medical rehabilitation, especially in replacing functions for limb disabilities, with some market prospects. However, achieving a good commercial scale overall will still take time.

6G technology will mainly be in the foundational stage during the “14th Five-Year Plan,” including R&D and standard-setting, with large-scale terminal applications expected to take longer.

Fostering New Growth Points in Daily Services

“Growth Point” ②

The “Outline” proposes focusing on public health, smart elderly care, cultural tourism, and home services to cultivate new growth points in the living services sector.

“Growth Point” ③

The “Outline” emphasizes expanding service consumption through relaxed access and integrated business formats, cultivating new growth points in service consumption.

What are the key focus areas for cultivating new growth points in daily services?

Wan Zhe: First, upgrading basic needs—this is the core foundation. It requires aligning with demographic changes, especially aging and declining birthrates, which lead to structural shifts in residents’ needs.

Second, driven by consumption upgrades. Residents’ demands are shifting from “whether it exists” to “whether it is good,” which is a clear trend. Focus areas include smart elderly care, cultural tourism, public health, and home services—these are also current pain points in livelihood. The key is to address the structural contradiction of excess low-end supply and shortage of high-end quality supply, filling gaps in universal services while meeting residents’ upgraded, diverse, high-quality needs, providing richer and more convenient living services, and creating a positive feedback loop that benefits both people’s livelihoods and economic development.

Third, expanding domestic demand as an engine. Currently, residents’ service consumption accounts for nearly half of overall consumption, becoming a core driver of growth. The CPI (Consumer Price Index) for this year has adjusted the weight of service consumption, with indicators expected to rebound. The living services sector is closely related to people’s well-being, economic growth, and employment expansion. Improving service quality can unleash trillions in potential consumption, playing a key role in smoothing the domestic cycle, establishing a long-term mechanism for expanding demand, and shaping a new development pattern.

Fourth, industry integration and business model innovation. Digital transformation and new forms of smart economy are continuously breaking down industry barriers and boundaries. Future efforts should deepen industry integration across sectors like culture, tourism, sports, commerce, healthcare, elderly care, and digital services, creating a comprehensive service system covering the entire lifecycle. This includes smart services, community-embedded services, and other forms that enable full coverage over time, extend into lower-tier markets, and leverage digital and intelligent technologies to expand service value, improve efficiency, and increase added value, cultivating living services as a new growth pole.

What are the cultivation paths?

Wan Zhe: It is necessary to relax market access, eliminate hidden barriers like “glass doors” in the service sector, encourage private capital to enter fields like elderly care, healthcare, cultural tourism, and childcare, and activate diverse business entities. Improve mechanisms such as government procurement, public-private partnerships, and private assistance, expand high-level opening-up, and introduce advanced international service models and resources. Support service enterprises to grow stronger and foster small and micro businesses, cultivating leading companies.

Deepen business model innovation through digital empowerment, expanding service scenarios. Develop new formats like internet healthcare, smart elderly care, digital cultural tourism, and instant retail, promoting cross-sector integration to meet full lifecycle and all market-level service needs.

Optimize supply structure, address supply-demand gaps, especially expanding inclusive services, and promote high-quality services in areas like elderly and childcare, and grassroots healthcare.

Advance standardization and branding, improve service commitments and certification systems, build a credit system for the service industry, and enhance consumer safety, trust, and satisfaction.

Strengthen policy support, innovate development models across the board, and provide support in land use, financing, talent, tax relief, and fiscal subsidies to create a fair and orderly market environment.

Fostering New High-End Consumption Growth Points

“Growth Point” ④

The “Outline” proposes cultivating new high-end consumption growth points, strengthening traditional brands and national trendy brands, developing peripheral derivative products, and actively promoting the “first launch” economy.

Where are the key focus areas for cultivating new high-end consumption growth points?

Wan Zhe: First, aligning with the core trend of consumption upgrading. China’s large-scale market advantage, with the world’s largest middle-income group, should be leveraged to meet demands for quality, branding, culture, and experience. The focus is on solving the mismatch between supply and demand in mid-to-high-end consumption, promoting spillover and return of consumption, and satisfying personalized, diversified, and high-end consumer needs with high-quality supply.

Second, upgrading Chinese brands. Supply-side upgrades should be the core, using traditional brands and trendy domestic brands as entry points to shift from “Made in China” to “Created in China” and “Intelligent China,” and to become global innovation centers and Chinese brands. Strengthening the branding and design capabilities of domestic brands is essential to enhance their premium value and cultivate internationally competitive Chinese consumer brands, supporting growth in mid-to-high-end consumption.

Third, building a healthy supply-demand cycle. Upgraded supply and demand should promote each other. High-end consumer demand can drive upstream manufacturing and service industries to extend to higher value chains, fostering product innovation, technological upgrades, and business model innovations. This creates a dynamic balance of “new demand leading new supply, new supply creating new demand,” promoting overall industry and value chain upgrades.

Fourth, cultivating new consumption formats and scenarios. Developing new formats like first-launch economy, first-store economy, and peripheral derivatives to stimulate young consumers and expand consumption. Promoting the construction of international consumer centers and enhancing China’s global influence in the consumer market. Facilitating visa policies for foreigners in China to attract global consumers, creating a balanced pattern of “bringing in” and “going out” in consumption.

What are the cultivation paths?

Wan Zhe: Implement brand enhancement initiatives, strengthen the domestic brand matrix, accelerate the cultivation of Chinese consumer brands, and improve product quality and brand premium.

Innovate consumption formats and scenarios, develop first-launch and first-store economies, promote IP commercialization, peripheral derivatives, and customized experiential consumption, and encourage green and digital consumption to stimulate new consumption vitality.

Leverage technology, using AI and big data to improve supply-demand matching, develop flexible production, and enable personalized, efficient, and low-cost customization to better meet high-end consumer needs.

Optimize consumption infrastructure and environment, upgrade traditional commercial districts, strengthen intellectual property protection, original design, and trademark protection, improve after-sales and consumer rights mechanisms, and create a trustworthy and comfortable consumption environment.

Promote domestic and international market linkage, enhance China’s influence in global markets, align with international high standards, attract high-quality global consumption resources, support domestic brands to go global, and expand global marketing networks.

Two “Unconventional” Measures

“Unconventional” ①

The “Outline” proposes focusing on strategic key areas and weak links in the supply chain, taking unconventional measures to push for decisive breakthroughs in key fields such as integrated circuits, industrial mother machines, high-end instruments, basic software, advanced materials, and biomanufacturing across the entire chain.

What are some ways to implement these unconventional measures?

Pan Helin, renowned economist and member of the MIIT Information and Communications Economic Expert Committee: Unconventional measures can take various forms.

At the institutional level, utilize new national systems to foster cross-regional, interdisciplinary, and multi-entity collaborative innovation; empower research entities with greater autonomy and higher scientific rewards to motivate innovation.

In terms of capital and other factors, fully support technological innovation by promoting full-chain technical breakthroughs through coordinated efforts of upstream and downstream enterprises to overcome technical challenges.

“Unconventional” ②

The “Outline” emphasizes adjusting higher education discipline and specialty settings, with an unconventional focus on urgently needed emerging fields like AI and integrated circuits, and implementing plans for breakthroughs in basic and interdisciplinary sciences.

How to understand the “unconventional layout”?

Pan Helin: The unconventional layout of disciplines supports national strategies from the talent supply side. For example, breaking the routine pace of discipline setup, rapidly increasing university discipline deployment; driving reforms based on industry and enterprise needs; increasing cross-disciplinary integration and forward-looking talent cultivation.