"Several weeks to end"? Iran delivers a sharp blow: refuses to negotiate! Oil prices also refuse to fall?

Bloomberg News — U.S. officials predicted publicly last Sunday (March 15) that the war between the U.S. and Iran will end within a few weeks, after which energy costs will decline. However, Iran responded firmly, stating it remains “stable and strong” and refusing to negotiate with the U.S… Iranian Foreign Minister made it clear: “We have never called for a ceasefire, nor have we ever requested negotiations.” The contrasting statements highlight the current battlefield and diplomatic deadlock. Oil prices remain volatile at high levels, further amplifying global inflation and economic pressures. On Monday (March 16), during Asian trading hours, U.S. crude oil hovered around $98.75 per barrel.

U.S. Energy Secretary: Conflict Will End in a Few Weeks

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wray said, “This conflict will definitely end within the next few weeks — possibly sooner.” He emphasized that once military objectives are achieved and the Strait of Hormuz supply is restored, oil prices will fall accordingly.

Former President Trump also repeatedly claimed that the war is “very close to ending,” trying to ease domestic concerns over high oil prices, inflation, and anti-war sentiments with optimistic signals. However, market confidence in a “few weeks” resolution remains weak, and oil prices continue to fluctuate at high levels.

Iran Insists It Is Stable and Strong, We Can Endure Longer Than the Enemy

Iran responded strongly to the optimistic U.S. predictions, with newly appointed Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and Foreign Minister stating Iran is “more capable of enduring” than its enemies and refusing any negotiations.

Iran maintains that its regime remains stable, its military capabilities are not fundamentally weakened, the Revolutionary Guards are active, and proxy networks continue retaliating.

Foreign Minister emphasized: “We have never sought a ceasefire, nor have we ever requested negotiations.” This statement indicates Iran has no intention of short-term compromise and aims to prolong the conflict through sustained attrition.

Iran Revolutionary Guards Launch More Missiles, Trump Threatens to Strike Halek Island Again

Despite signals from the U.S. indicating an end to the conflict, hostilities continue. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards claimed last Sunday to have launched more missiles at Israel and three U.S. military bases in the region.

Over the weekend, Trump threatened to strike Iran’s main oil export hub, Halek Island, again, saying, “We might do it a few more times — just for fun.”

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, causing ongoing disruptions to global oil supplies and fueling market panic.

Trump Plans to Form Multinational Escort Alliance, Timing Unclear

The Trump administration plans to announce the formation of a multinational coalition as early as this week to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz. However, discussions are ongoing about whether these actions will begin before or after hostilities end.

Trump previously stated that the U.S. Navy would “soon” start escorting ships, but the specific timeline remains uncertain. The Pentagon assesses that large-scale escort operations pose high risks in the current environment and could provoke greater Iranian retaliation.

Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Negotiations Expected to Begin in Coming Days; Hezbollah Must Disarm

Two Israeli officials revealed that Israel and Lebanon are expected to hold talks in the coming days aimed at reaching a ceasefire agreement, requiring Iran-backed Hezbollah to disarm. If successful, this could ease pressure on the northern border, but Hezbollah remains active and firm, making a short-term agreement very difficult.

International Energy Agency Promises 411.9 Million Barrels of Emergency Reserves to Enter Market Soon

The IEA announced that its emergency oil reserves will soon flow into the global market, with member countries pledging 411.9 million barrels. This exceeds the 182 million barrels released during the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, marking the largest release in IEA history. Trump called on France, Japan, and others to work together to reopen shipping lanes, but logistical delays and ongoing Iranian threats cast doubt on the actual impact.

Short-term Optimism Contradicts Battlefield Reality; Oil Prices Remain Highly Uncertain

The U.S. optimism that the conflict will end in a few weeks conflicts with the reality on the ground: Iran refuses negotiations, Revolutionary Guards continue retaliating, proxy networks remain active, and the Strait remains closed without signs of reopening.

Trump’s threats to strike Halek Island again and to form escort alliances show determination, but Iran’s resilience exceeds expectations, making a short-term ceasefire unlikely.

Oil prices remain high and volatile, with global inflation and economic pressures intensifying. Investors should remain alert to sudden battlefield developments that could trigger reversals, and monitor progress in Israel-Lebanon negotiations, escort coalition formation, and the actual implementation of IEA’s reserve releases.

Editor’s Summary

U.S. officials predict that the U.S.-Iran war will end within a few weeks, after which energy costs will decline. Energy Secretary Wray said, “The conflict will definitely end in the coming weeks — possibly sooner.” However, Iran responded strongly, claiming it is “more capable of enduring” than its enemies and refusing any negotiations or ceasefire.

New Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei warned of closing U.S. military bases, the Revolutionary Guards launched more missiles, and the conflict continues to escalate. Trump threatened to strike Iran’s Halek Island oil infrastructure again and plans to form a multinational escort coalition. Israel and Lebanon are expected to hold ceasefire talks in the coming days, demanding Hezbollah disarm. The IEA pledged that 411.9 million barrels of emergency reserves will soon enter the market.

Short-term signals of optimism from the U.S. conflict with battlefield realities are stark, and oil prices remain highly uncertain. Investors should beware of Iran’s potential escalation of retaliation, which could trigger a new supply shock, and keep an eye on Israel-Lebanon negotiations, escort coalition progress, and the actual execution of IEA’s reserve releases.

As of 10:21 Beijing time, U.S. crude oil is trading at $98.72 per barrel.