【Iran Crisis】Citi Predicts Brent Crude Will Rise to $110-$120 in the Short Term — How Can the Oil Market's Continuous Rally Be Halted?

SocialAnxietyStaker

2026-03-18 05:29:51

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Iran war continues to boost oil prices, with Citibank raising its short-term baseline forecast for Brent crude oil to $110–$120 per barrel, expecting the Middle East conflict to ease by mid to late April. The three-month target for New York crude oil is $104 per barrel.

Analysts including Max Layton from Citibank stated in a report that over the next 4 to 6 weeks, oil supply disruptions could reach 11 to 16 million barrels per day, lower than the previous estimate of about 20 million barrels per day risking transportation through the Strait of Hormuz.

The bank indicated that the oil market may continue to rise until prices reach a level that prompts the U.S. to cease military actions, market events occur, or the International Energy Agency or OECD countries implement stronger stock release measures, or major global military powers take action to forcibly reopen the Strait of Hormuz, or China pressures Iran to reach an agreement.

In the baseline scenario, Citibank expects Brent crude oil to fall to $70–$80 per barrel by the end of the year.

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