Chemical industry prosperity cycle accelerates, Chemical ETF Jiasheng (159129) expected to continue benefiting

As of 13:04 in the afternoon on March 13, 2026, the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Industry Theme Index increased by 0.64%. The constituent stocks Jinjie Co. rose by 6.38%, Salt Lake Co. increased by 4.86%, Lanxiao Technology rose by 4.84%, Yuntianhua increased by 4.12%, and Xingyuan Material rose by 3.85%.

In news, glyphosate prices rapidly surged to 26,500 yuan/ton in March 2026, mainly due to the escalation of raw material costs caused by the US-Iran conflict, combined with the US listing of phosphorus elements and glyphosate as key strategic materials. China has a high export share of glyphosate; in 2025, exports of non-halogenated organic phosphorus derivatives increased by 4.36% year-on-year, indicating the industry has emerged from the previous inventory cycle low. With ongoing uncertainties in overseas Monsanto litigation, the solid cost-performance advantage of Chinese products, and the approaching peak season for spring stocking in North America, glyphosate exports and prices are expected to rise simultaneously in 2026, boosting demand for upstream chemical intermediates.

Guangfa Securities pointed out that the price increase trend in chemical products continues. Among the 336 products they track, 58% have seen price increases, with many segments experiencing significant rises. Specifically, prices for chromium chemicals, TMP, polyurethane, amino acids, and dyes have all risen. For example, TDI prices have increased due to limited overseas shipments and plant shutdowns, leading to tighter global supply. Geopolitically, tensions between the US and Iran have escalated, disrupting oil supply and transportation in multiple countries, pushing up oil prices. Industry-wise, chemicals, as a typical cyclical sector, is experiencing a phase of “profit growth—capacity expansion—profit bottoming out—capacity clearing/improved demand expectations.” With negative capital expenditure growth, anti-inflation measures, and overseas interest rate cuts, the industry is entering a “dawn” period. Meanwhile, ongoing global technological revolutions are bringing new opportunities for material transformation.

Data shows that as of February 27, 2026, the top ten weights in the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Industry Theme Index are Wanhua Chemical, Salt Lake Co., Zangge Mining, Tianci Materials, Hualu Hengsheng, Yuntianhua, Juhua Co., Hengli Petrochemical, Baofeng Energy, and Rongsheng Petrochemical, collectively accounting for 45.18% of the total.

The CSI Chemical ETF (159129) closely tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Industry Theme Index, focusing on a new cycle of industry prosperity amid the “anti-involution” background.

Off-market investors can also pay attention to investment opportunities in the chemical sector through the Chemical ETF Connect Fund (013527).