Strait of Hormuz: The Intersection of Geopolitical Maneuvering and Economic Lifeline

The Gulf region is rich in oil and gas resources, with oil reserves accounting for nearly 60% of the world’s total reserves and natural gas making up 40%. The Strait of Hormuz is the only passage connecting the Persian Gulf to the outside world, through which over a quarter of global seaborne oil and about one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas are transported to the world.

Since the U.S. and Israel launched military strikes against Iran on February 28, the strait has effectively been blockaded, with only sporadic ships passing through. If shipping disruptions continue, it will cause severe shocks to the global energy markets and impact the world economy through various channels.

Geography and History: A Millennium of Strategic Control

The Strait of Hormuz is an arc-shaped waterway connecting the Persian Gulf and the Oman Gulf, with its narrowest point only about 33 kilometers wide. Nearshore waters are generally less than 25 meters deep, with only deep-water channels capable of accommodating large oil tankers. At its narrowest, the International Maritime Organization has established a traffic separation scheme: ships entering and leaving ports follow separate lanes, each about 3 kilometers wide, separated by a buffer zone of the same width. This means the waters available for giant oil tankers are actually very limited.

For thousands of years, the Strait of Hormuz has been not only a vital commercial route but also a strategic military corridor contested by multiple nations. With the discovery of oil in the surrounding regions in the early 20th century, its strategic importance rapidly increased, becoming a focal point of trade, politics, and conflict.

In 1971, Iran took control of Abu Musa Island, Greater and Lesser Tunb Islands at the northern entrance of the strait. Sovereignty over these islands has long been disputed between Iran and the United Arab Emirates. Since the late 1970s, the U.S. has increased its presence in the region under the guise of ensuring navigation security. During the Iran-Iraq War (1980–1988), Iran repeatedly threatened to block the strait, laying mines and attacking oil tankers in 1987. In June 2025, the U.S. launched an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, and the Iranian parliament authorized closing the Strait of Hormuz. On February 28 of this year, the U.S. and Israel launched a military strike against Iran, prompting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to announce the closure of the strait that same day.

Iran, leveraging its unique geographic advantages, can influence shipping through the strait without deploying large warships, relying instead on small fast patrol boats, mines, missile or drone attacks, and GPS jamming.

Control and Contestation: Escalating Tensions in the Gulf

In recent days, the military situation around the Strait of Hormuz has continued to evolve. Vice Commander of the IRGC Navy, Mohammad Akbari Zadeh, stated in early March that the strait is fully under Iranian naval control. The U.S. has given a different account. On March 3, U.S. Central Command Commander Brad Cooper announced that there are no Iranian naval vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and its surrounding waters. Some media reports suggest that Oman is also involved in controlling the strait, and the U.S. has deployed naval forces there.

According to the Iranian Tasnim News Agency on March 7, as military standoffs intensify, Iran is strengthening its control and monitoring of the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. aircraft carrier group “Lincoln” has failed to seize control of the strait from Iran. An IRGC spokesperson on March 10 told Fars News Agency that U.S. ships and aircraft have withdrawn about 1,000 kilometers away from the strait due to concerns over Iranian missile and drone attacks.

Lebanese military analyst Elias Hanna said Iran still has the capability to interfere with shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Besides traditional warships, Iran possesses various maritime military forces such as torpedoes, mines, and small submarines.

Currently, the IRGC mainly conducts attacks on individual oil tankers and merchant ships inside and outside the strait using drones and missiles, targeting Western vessels. As of the 10th, about a dozen ships have been attacked.

U.S. President Donald Trump posted on social media on the 10th, threatening Iran not to lay mines in the strait. On the 11th, he claimed that U.S. forces had sunk 28 Iranian mine-laying vessels.

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, issued a statement on the 12th saying Iran will not abandon revenge and will continue to use the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as a means. Deputy Foreign Minister Ravanji also stated on the 12th that Iran has not laid mines in the waters of the strait and allows some countries’ ships to pass through.

Game of Power and Impact: The Global Economy Faces Tests

The Strait of Hormuz is a crucial route for oil exports from Middle Eastern oil-producing countries and a vital artery for global energy security. Data shows that Saudi Arabia heavily relies on this strait for oil exports, with about 5.5 million barrels transported daily; Iran’s oil exports are approximately 1.7 million barrels per day.

The tense situation in the strait has immediate effects on shipping. Real-time data from international tanker tracking systems show that vessel speeds around the strait have dropped to zero, with many ships halting to avoid risks. Several international insurers have canceled war risk coverage for the area, further discouraging shipping.

According to The Guardian on June 6, the shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is currently effectively shut down, with thousands of sailors stranded on oil tankers. One stranded crew member described, “We are now anchored near Dubai’s coast, and it looks like we will be stuck here indefinitely. We are powerless and just waiting.”

Although some oil from Saudi Arabia and the UAE can be rerouted via land pipelines, the overall capacity to substitute is limited and cannot short-term fill the gap. Most Iraqi exports, as well as all exports from Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain, have no alternative routes.

Iraqi political analyst Adel Ghaireh believes that while closing the Strait of Hormuz could impact global energy markets, it would also backfire on Iran’s own oil revenues and could trigger tensions with neighboring countries, risking diplomatic isolation. Ghaireh suggests Iran’s threat to blockade the strait aims to pressure neighboring countries to urge the U.S. and Israel to cease hostilities.

HSBC oil and gas analyst Kim Fistej states that the security of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will be the biggest variable in determining international oil prices. U.S. Turtle Capital Consulting analysts say that if oil prices rise sharply, the impact will propagate through raw material procurement, logistics, and chemical raw materials, affecting manufacturing. Samuel Ramani, a senior researcher at the UK’s Royal United Services Institute, warns that rising energy costs will increase production costs, which will be passed along supply chains to consumers, causing “serious inflationary impacts on the global economy.”

Beyond energy, about one-third of the world’s fertilizer exports also transit through the Strait of Hormuz, and fertilizer shortages could impact agricultural prices.

The crisis could even influence the long-term development plans of Gulf countries. Ramani notes that investors in Dubai are beginning to worry about the impact of the strait crisis on local tourism and finance sectors, and some large projects under Saudi Arabia’s “Vision 2030” may face setbacks.

Source: Xinhua News Agency

Authors: Li Jun, Liu Xi