According to Cober's Communications citing a Moody's indicator, the probability of the U.S. experiencing an economic recession within the next 12 months has surged to 48.6%, reaching the highest level since the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak in 2020. This figure has risen by 15 percentage points over the past six months, primarily due to deterioration in the job market and soaring oil prices. Meanwhile, the probability of finding a new job within three months has fallen to 44.0%, approaching historically low levels, while the national hiring rate stands at only 3%.