Bear exhaustion, how long can the rebound last?

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Market Summary: Today, the index was affected by external factors. The opening did not gap down; tech stocks opened collectively higher, while power stocks initially surged then pulled back. In the early session, after falling to the 2025 support level, the index began to rebound. Major gains came from computing power leasing, cloud computing, storage chips, CPO, etc. Commercial aerospace and AI applications stopped falling and turned red. Power stocks did not follow the index’s strength; insurance and banks declined to control the market, while chemicals and oil & gas weakened.

Market Performance: Sentiment-driven grouping + low-position arbitrage, computing synergy, storage chips, energy storage, and chemicals performed relatively well.

Trading Difficulty: Moderate (easy, moderate, difficult, hell)

Highlights: Core stocks are grouped, mainly low-buying, avoid buying on divergence acceleration, do not chase continuous rises.

1. Operation Review

1. Yesterday, Dayi reminded everyone that if the index continues to fall, it can be a chance for recovery. This morning’s slight red opening (note: earlier mistake in the morning tip) was not ideal for participation, but then it only oscillated and fell back. Computing power was unaffected, with over 2000 stocks rising throughout, indicating the market is no longer afraid of declines. The bottom-fishing value is emerging. The market’s bottom-fishing game is about collective recovery and group support. As power stocks and anti-industry chemicals weaken from high positions, will tomorrow bring a market-level rally? For Dayi’s view, see below.

2. Market Review

Today, 3,554 stocks rose, 1,831 fell, with a total turnover of 2.06 trillion yuan, about 180 billion less than yesterday. The index opened with a small red volume, tech stocks collectively opened higher and held the decline, rebounding and rising. Banks, insurance, and securities pulled back to control the market; power stocks surged then retreated; energy storage and wind power diverged; chemicals weakened significantly.

The day saw 57 stocks hitting the daily limit (yesterday 39), with a 73% limit-up rate (yesterday 70%), and 50 first-time limit-ups (yesterday 28). Four stocks hit the limit-down (yesterday 10). From the perspective of consecutive limit-ups, although 5 stocks successfully hit the limit, the high market enthusiasm today did not support further consecutive limit-ups, indicating that the funds supporting the streaks are not highly confident in today’s rebound.

Sector Highlights: AI hardware hit 10 limit-ups, storage chips 6, computing power leasing 7, computing synergy 8, liquid cooling 6, AI applications 3, robotics 3. Commercial aerospace 5, energy storage 4. It’s clear that today’s tech rebound was led by AI-related stocks, with over 70% hitting the limit-up. Technology remains the main performer in the current market. For the index to improve, sustained tech strength is essential.

Auction one-word board:
Shenzhen Huafa A slightly increased orders (yesterday 361 million)

3. Market Analysis
Main Market
Today, the index hit a short-term new low, touching last year’s year-end support before rebounding. Volume continued to shrink, with major computing power stocks leading the rally. This rebound aligns with Dayi’s expectations—a short-term relief rally after a bearish decline. Today’s rebound is short-term. Volume remains light; even if it increases tomorrow, the space is limited. Expect the rebound to lack sustainability; take profits if you have gains today. The index tested last year’s high support; those entering are mainly bottom-fishing funds. The probability of chasing the rally tomorrow is low; mainly expect consolidation.

Direction
Today, computing synergy and power stocks showed divergence. Although some power stocks had one-word limit-ups early, they did not lift the sector. Morning surge was proactive, but in the afternoon, power stocks underperformed the broader market. Tomorrow, power stocks may continue to diverge, but high-position stocks may still see group support. Watch for buying opportunities with favorable odds.

The chemical sector’s weakness today was expected, as it is a counter-industry stock. Expect market consolidation tomorrow. If tech remains strong, chemicals may continue to decline, waiting for opportunities. If early recovery occurs, avoid chasing and consider selling.

Previously strong storage chips and PCB sectors weakened for three consecutive days, with different stocks hitting limits each time. The trend indicates that the market is more inclined toward arbitrage within these sectors. Compared to CPO and PCB, storage chips are relatively stronger, so sector rotation for trend arbitrage remains viable.

Computing leasing and cloud services are the strongest today, benefiting from the continued fermentation of small lobsters and cloud service price hikes. The token factory concept has become a key player in the AI industry chain, still at the bottom stage. With AI applications booming and AI agents transforming other industries, the computing power sector still has great potential. Currently, participation is mainly quantitative, with no new funds entering, so today’s strength is viewed as rotation. Tomorrow, sector differentiation is expected.

4. Profitable Stocks Summary
Currently, the market lacks leading stocks; analyzing from a sector perspective reduces individual stock valuation. Here are some core stocks with potential:

GCL New Energy: Expect further decline tomorrow, likely to find support after testing the 10-day moving average, with favorable odds.
Shunna Co.: Expect consolidation.
Jinkai New Energy: Expect consolidation.
Han Cable: Expect a rebound after oscillation.
Yuneng Holdings: Expect divergence.

Zhongnan Culture: Expect a gap-up opening then a pullback.
Huaneng Energy: Expect consolidation.
Huaneng Liaoning: Expect a gap-up opening with a limit-up.
Sanfangxiang: Expect a flat high opening with a limit-up.

Ningbo Construction: Expect consolidation.
Meili Yun: Expect acceleration.
Shunhao Co.: Expect a small gap-up with a limit-down.
Jiugang Hongxing: Expect acceleration.

Bowei Storage: Expect a rise then pullback.
Demingli: Expect a gap-up then pullback. If Micron’s earnings are good tonight and open high, be cautious about chasing tomorrow. Currently dominated by quantitative factors; avoid chasing.

Baichuan Co.: Expect a low-open stabilization.
Jinniu Chemical: Expect a low-open. Watch for odds opportunities during strong tech periods; beware of declines after tech strength.
Chitianhua: Expect a gap-up then pullback.
Jindazheng: Expect adjustment.

Guosheng Technology: Expect a gap-up then pullback.
Farsight: Expect consolidation.
Xiexin Integration: Expect consolidation.

5. Summary
Tomorrow, the index is expected to fluctuate. Computing power and storage chips remain relatively strong. The overall trend is weak divergence. Both are currently arbitrage opportunities, sector rotation, low-buying on stocks that haven’t risen, and cautious chasing. Power sector divergence is expected tomorrow; high-position stocks may continue to support odds after divergence. Currently, support is weakening but not out; funds will still support grouping after declines. Chemicals follow similar logic; monitor tech sector attitude to adjust pace. If opening high, avoid chasing.

Wishing everyone big gains tomorrow.

Xiao Shu’s Dayi Trading Philosophy:

1. Follow the trend, leverage the momentum!
2. Pre-judge and follow decisively!
3. Seek the strongest, only do the strongest!
4. Actively admit mistakes, cut losses timely!
5. Reject comparison, maintain stable profits!

Short-term trading is like walking on a tightrope—glamorous on the surface but full of danger. It amplifies market fluctuations and easily traps investors in a vicious cycle of chasing highs and selling lows, blinded by greed and panic. Discipline in short-term trading must be remembered:

• Strict stop-loss: set maximum loss limits for each trade; exit decisively once hit, no luck mentality.
• Follow the trend: only trade clear trends; avoid counter-trend operations or guessing tops and bottoms.
• Control position size: allocate funds reasonably based on market conditions and risk tolerance; avoid heavy or full positions.
• Avoid frequent trading: don’t be tempted by short-term volatility; wait patiently for the best opportunities.
• Stay calm and rational: keep a balanced mindset regardless of gains or losses; execute according to your plan.

Remember, short-term market movements are full of uncertainties, but for prepared traders, this is an opportunity, not gambling. Steady operation and flexible adaptation are my keys to short-term success and the solid foundation for future progress.

May your stocks rise like the morning sun, hitting new highs every day; investing be like sailing with the current, steadily earning profits; holdings be potential stocks, value rising step by step; operations be like divine strokes, precise buy and sell. Wishing the market a long rainbow, wealth rolling in, profits continuous, and abundant harvest! If you find this helpful, please support with likes, tips, and comments—let’s create a positive community atmosphere. The environment of Taoxian is up to us! Likes, tips, and good intentions are not just for flattering the author but for everyone to help select and elevate quality content, making the community better. The more premium posts, the higher the community standard; the more likely you are to see good content. We sow, we harvest!