$BTC Market Analysis 2026.03.18

The rally that started from 60k has continued for 39 days. If this rally is a correction against the decline from 97900 to 60k (blue route), then a reversal point must be found this week to turn downward. Otherwise, the rally starting from 60k could be a correction against the entire decline from 126000 to 60k (red route).

Based on our BTC structure analysis, here are two possible routes shown in the chart:

Red: The entire rally from 60k is a three-wave structure, with this week's weekly candle high being the endpoint of the first wave. After the first wave ends, it will pull back to end of March/early April, where an adjustment low will form without breaking below 60k, then initiate the next rally wave extending to mid-to-late April. After completing the entire rally from 60k, it will trigger a decline of the same magnitude as the 126000-60k drop.

Blue: The rally from 60k is a correction against 97900-60k. After finding a reversal point this week, it will continue declining. After completing the entire decline starting from 126000, it will run an equivalent-level rally. Under this route, the low point needs to break below 60k. Currently, the time window for this decline is very limited—the longer it drags out, the lower the probability of this scenario becomes.

I have prepared trading strategies for both scenarios and am waiting for the market to provide the answer to strike decisively. $BTC ‌#美联储利率决议