Opportunities and challenges always coexist amidst chaos.

After the events in the Middle East, they brought huge swings and uncertainty to global capital~ especially when the U.S., for the first time in history, picked one… which further exacerbated the world’s fluctuations in capital resources. [Taoguba]

Step by step to break it down~ Last Thursday and Friday were dominated by lithium mines and related materials like lithium hexafluorophosphate, VC, EC, and so on……  

The conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran has entered its 5th week…… Russia’s ban on exporting gasoline (because the 2M blast also led to a 40% reduction in oil production) — and as for the Middle East, you don’t even need to mention it
As countries consume their inventories, it’s foreseeable that oil and gas shortages will gradually filter through, making other industry chains increasingly more pronounced

Besides the lithium mine news from a certain country in Africa~ it’s also Australia—this world’s largest mining country~ which cut production due to the gasoline and diesel issue……
Isn’t Australia an oil exporter? Yes, but exporting oil doesn’t mean exporting gasoline and diesel… 90% is imported, and New Zealand is 100% in need of imports… As for so-called many developed countries, they aren’t that advanced in industrial technology…… So it’s like those people studying in Australia—(just listen to it) — what can you learn there…… learn mining, agriculture (farming), animal husbandry (raising cattle)…… Of course, you can also learn “a more advanced kind of art,” hahaha.
Roundabout but back to the main point~ lithium carbonate has a bit of a Davis double-click feel…… Overseas new-energy electric vehicle demand surged (even to the point where you can’t get a car—you have to wait). It’s so strange; it’s the same way as we felt about the once-hot German and Japanese cars more than a decade ago…… The wind and water cycles~ for 30 years, each has had its own time of dominance…… Now it’s our turn: the automobile industry, with a standout rise of our own, is moving in to eat up theirs

Lithium carbonate futures are as low as 70,000… better 700,000… that range…… now it’s 160,000, but clearly the stock gains are higher than the futures… so what does that mean~ futures can be expected to still rise
Davis double-click…… indirectly a bearish factor for battery cells and energy storage (raw material price increases) And there’s another factor: although these companies export strongly, the impact of人民币 appreciation is also there…… The event factor still isn’t as directly heart-punching as the new-energy lithium mine factors

These are some of the constraints of energy storage inverters…… From a long-term perspective, it’s not a big problem, but in a situation where institutions generally retreat while volume shrinks, you still should sell when it rises… I exited on Thursday; that noon on Taoguba also said I reduced positions; and one more thing is, look at my teacher—basically everyone knows this: normally, you plan around the 5-day at most the 10-day moving averages; once it breaks, you’ll leave! At least cutting is necessary—I’ve said it more than once

However, as to how the next events unfold, theoretically our country’s resilience is absolutely higher than other countries…… our national characteristics…… that is, a mindset of planning ahead for risks and thinking in terms of living comfortably while preparing for danger, plus the far-sighted early layout mentioned above…… energy diversification is done far better than any other country in the world…… so the economic impact is theoretically lower than theirs

As for new energy, we won’t even say—it’s absolutely number one; other countries, even Korea and Japan and even the European princes who were the earliest to hype “green energy,” all look up in envy……

We develop in a more diversified and more scientific way, and more in line with our own energy conditions—for example, coal-to-chemicals, etc…… Summary~ I’m more optimistic about lithium mines, and I think it has some staying power
Separating the technology line…… Previously it was always replacing compute power with storage power, meaning Micron Technology, SanDisk, and Hynix replacing Nvidia in the lead,
Of course recently, storage has been falling because Hynix’s capacity expansion—especially what Google talked about as so-called new technology—if the new technology is realized, it will compress storage…… It’s very similar to the time last year when DeepSeek suddenly emerged, and everyone was worried about Nvidia GPUs

This is actually a typical (Jevons paradox)~ for example: after Watt improved the steam engine in the 18th century…… coal efficiency improved, but total coal demand increased…… the problem with Bairui storage isn’t big

The strongest in the tech line is nothing more than optics…… I’ve said before that fiber optics is a must for drones…… not just for AI use…… otherwise Fei Yang Fiber Optics wouldn’t be able to jump like this (TBD)
Optical interconnect optical chips, wc light sources…… basically the ones people have always been talking about: Changguang HuaXin, and Source Photonics Technology—its stock valuation and price are already high
Thin-film lithium niobate, you just need to look at OptoChip Technology
ocs optical switches…… Tengjing Technology…… Google used to use them, and now Nvidia also wants to use them, so the industry cycle is good

Optics for chemical fertilizer—this is grain’s staple… even if other entertainment and spiritual needs are less, that’s fine, but if you can’t eat, then things really will get chaotic
This also requires processing produced from oil and gas

Speaking of refining nitrogen fertilizer—this helps feed billions of people worldwide, and it’s still a German chemist…… (Fritz Haber) …… BASF is probably known to everyone—BASF is the world’s largest chemical giant…… In 1916, Haber invented it and immediately BASF bought the patent

Basically it’s about this… Summary: new energy lithium batteries, lithium battery materials, coal-to-chemicals, and in tech the ocs optical switches

By the way…… regarding whether the true “ice point” is coming and catching it (some are freezing, then freezing again… so icy) and the index’s strong support levels…… it still looks fine
​ For this, absolute certainty
​ Previously, I was always best at betting on violent opportunities around the “ice point”
​
​ Since last time on 3.23, it was the first time I used it—I basically never went all-in based on “梭哈” views—and it proved that 3800 was the big bottom; after that, there were two days of rebounds of the bull trend, and the index and individual stocks
​
​ This time, what I told a friend in the morning was that the index opened strongly around 3850… plus more than 4500 individual stocks opened green, with over 4500 turning green at the open
​ This is the buy point for a synchronized rebound…… because it’s impossible to go back to get another chance to probe 3800 a second time
​ Maybe many teachers are just doing counter-rebound… the reason is simple: fear and memory in their hearts… the panic left by last Friday and last Monday’s market and individual stocks is still fresh and vivid; you still have lingering anxieties
​ Otherwise, on Friday, it wouldn’t be possible for 5000 stocks to fall at the open in the morning… it was exactly because the teachers who were pessimistic at the open directly gathered together and sold to cut losses
​ This also created the best opportunity for a second time to pull back and get on the ride
​
​

Every time the true panic and true “ice point” …… you catch it with your hands, you can grasp it clearly,

Of course, in the middle there were many times where some stocks were selected… not so satisfactory
That’s just normal

After all, the changes in the market happen too fast—everyone still needs to experience it more themselves; try not to chase highs too wildly……
Haike Xinyuan has also risen quite a bit… Rongjie Co., Ltd. hitting 4 boards, and Meinonghua—the weight-loss drug stock
Huadian Liaoneng, the clear-mingming breakout

Oh right, let’s mention Jimei Te again. A cross-industry gamble: compared with Dellmond’s net assets, the valuation of Jimei Te’s acquisition this time shows an appreciation rate that’s more than quite a bit higher (see what happens) — it’s also upstream in PCB manufacturing

​